America goes to the polls tomorrow with President George Bush and Senator John Kerry virtually tied in the electoral college count, fighting over eight to 10 unpredictable states that could swing the election either way, writes Conor O'Clery, North America Editor, in Miami.
Both sides tried to assess the effect of the interjection of Osama bin Laden into the extraordinarily volatile election campaign, but analysts disagreed over whether it had a major impact.
The al-Qaeda leader's sudden emergence in a videotape appear-ance refocused the campaign on the war on terrorism, with both Mr Bush and Mr Kerry scrambling to pledge victory.
Republicans said the tape was likely to help Mr Bush as voters would likely see the tape as an effort to defeat the president and would rally round him.
Democrats seemed to agree, though Kerry strategists pointed out that it would remind voters that after three years Mr Bush had failed to capture the man responsible for the 9/11 attack.
The issue certainly distracted from Mr Kerry's closing argument for change and from a run of bad news for the president, and focused on the one issue on which Mr Bush leads.
The Kerry campaign reacted furiously to attempts to depict Osama bin Laden's message as covert support for the Democratic challenger. It demanded an apology from a Fox News presenter, Neil Cavuto, when he said Osama bin Laden was all but wearing a Kerry campaign button.
A Zogby poll yesterday put Mr Kerry ahead by one point, while Newsweek had Bush in the lead by six points among likely voters and three points among registered voters. In the last election Mr Bush was well ahead in most polls on the eve of voting. An Associated Press poll analysis suggests the US is evenly divided or leaning toward Bush in the fight for 270 of the 538 electoral college votes needed to win.
Some 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes and Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia in his camp for 211 electoral votes. This means the president needs at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes and Kerry needs 59. The remaining 105 electoral votes are in Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico, states which have seen a frenzy of campaigning.
Today Mr Bush will visit Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Mexico. Michigan and New Hampshire are edging towards Mr Kerry but could also go either way. An additional six to 12 states, including Democratic stronghold Hawaii - where Vice President Dick Cheney campaigned yesterday - could also be crucial.
Mr Kerry reminded voters at campaign stops in Florida that Mr Bush had diverted attention from the search for bin Laden and diverted resources to Iraq.