The PDs have not only managed to maintain their own separate identity in the minds of voters, they have thus far escaped the backlash which Fianna Fáil has experienced since last May's general election, writes Ian McShane
In September of last year I commented on the fact that, at just 36 per cent, the Government satisfaction level registered by the Irish Times/MRBI poll was the lowest for a government under Bertie Ahern since he was first elected Taoiseach five years previously. One month later, this figure actually dropped to 33 per cent, while Mr Ahern himself languished at his lowest ever personal satisfaction rating of 44 per cent. Fast forward five months to this week's poll and the Government, the Taoiseach and the Fianna Fáil party's standing have all dipped to varying degrees, with the drop in support for Fianna Fáil from 36 per cent to 32 per cent statistically significant. Lest those in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party who have their own leadership ambitions take heart from Mr Ahern's low rating of 43 per cent nationally, they would do well to note that the Taoiseach's support amongst his own party faithful remains rock-solid at 77 per cent.
Between September of last year and February of this year, the decline in satisfaction with the manner in which the Government is running the country has been most pronounced amongst the 25-49 year age cohort. It is presumably no coincidence that those who fall within this age grouping are more likely to hold a mortgage or are striving to purchase their first home, have children of school-going age, and be full and active members of the labour market. They have clearly not been enamoured by the Government's handling of such issues as educational cutbacks, the cost of housing, inflation, mortgage benefits etc.
It is difficult to gauge what effect, if any, the Government's stance in relation to US military stopovers at Shannon has had on its popularity thus far. The broader question as to how the Government behaves in the event of a US/UK-led attack on Iraq is, however, likely to have a major impact on its standing amongst the general population over the coming weeks. With the mood of the general public in most European countries firmly against any short-term actions in the Gulf, a blatant alignment of Ireland alongside the US on this issue could prove costly to Bertie Ahern.
In tandem with these trends, the perceived performance of the PDs as junior coalition partner has if anything improved. The PDs have not only managed to maintain their own separate identity in the minds of voters, they have thus far escaped the backlash which the Government and Fianna Fáil have experienced since last May's general election. PD party leaders will also take note of the fact that in each of the three opinion polls conducted during the lifetime of the current administration, roughly two thirds of all PD supporters interviewed have indicated that they are dissatisfied with the performance of this Government. This is in stark contrast to the prevailing trend throughout the 1997-2002 Fianna Fáil/PD coalition, whereby PD supporters were in the main satisfied with that government's performance. If PD support can actually improve in the face of declining Government satisfaction, it could be argued that the party would be more likely to countenance withdrawing from coalition in the event of a major disagreement with Fianna Fáil than it might have been during the last administration. Only time will tell.
In terms of inter-party dynamics, this week's poll is the first in quite some time which has registered an uplift in support for both main opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour, and a marginal drop in the combined support of what some have termed the "alternative" opposition of Sinn Féin, Green Party and some Independents. Coupled with the fact that both Gerry Adams's and Trevor Sargent's personal ratings have dropped significantly since last October, the next survey will tell whether today's poll marks the beginning of a sustained resurgence of the old FG/Labour alliance as a credible alternative to a Fianna Fáil-led government in 2006/2007.
Pat Rabbitte takes up in the popularity stakes where his predecessor Ruairí Quinn left off, with a 44 per cent satisfaction rating. Compared with the national average, Mr Rabbitte is rating more positively in the main urban areas, and amongst those aged 35 years plus, and he will be reasonably satisfied with his initial standing in the polls given he was elected as party leader less than four months ago. Enda Kenny has yet to make his personal mark on a national basis, with four in 10 of all electors still not prepared to venture an opinion as to how they would vote his performance. The drop of seven points in Mary Harney's personal satisfaction score is difficult to interpret, and may to some extent be due to her own performance being overshadowed by that of her parliamentary colleagues, particularly Michael McDowell as Minister for Justice.
Finally, as we publish the first poll findings of the new year, a few words on the polling methodology which will be employed by MRBI and The Irish Times for the 2003 series of surveys is in order. Those who have been following the Irish Times/MRBI series over the years will know that in 1999 a scientific procedure was introduced whereby the party support figures were statistically adjusted to counteract the tendency of polls to overstate support for Fianna Fáil. In February 2002, a separate research study was conducted by MRBI, the results of which indicated that the overstatement of support for Fianna Fáil was linked to a confusion in the minds of voters as to precisely what party their preferred candidates actually belonged. Once the full list of candidates was published prior to last year's general election therefore, survey respondents were asked which candidate they were likely to vote for, as opposed to which party. Two such polls were conducted in this fashion, and the degree to which the Irish Times/MRBI pre-election poll of May 13th accurately reflected the outcome of the general election is by now well documented.
Once the 2002 election had been held, the list of candidates by definition became defunct, with the party support question reinstated, along with the statistical adjustment procedure. For all polls carried out in 2003 therefore, party support figures will be presented in terms of each party's core vote; party support excluding the undecided; and the adjusted figures.
Ian McShane is managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland.