An alternative Fine Gael-Labour Government has moved four points ahead of the Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat coalition, according to the latest TNS mrbi opinion poll carried out for the Irish Times.
The coalition has increased its support by five per cent since the last poll in January.
The outlook for the Government looks bleaker if the Greens are included in the equation. With Trevor Sargent on board an alternative coalition would enjoy a 10 per cent lead, though the Greens have not committed to any such arrangement as yet.
Adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 34 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael 31 per cent (up 5 points); Labour 10 per cent (down 1 point); Sinn Fein 10 per cent (up 1 point); Greens 6 per cent (down 2 points); PDs 3 per cent (up 2 points); and Independents/Others 6 per cent (down 2 points).
The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday last from a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points around the country and after the each party had confirmed key elements of their economic manifestos.
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has not yet named a date for the election but it is widely expected to be scheduled for a Thursday, either May 17th or 24th.
The progress can be largely attributed to a sharp rise of five percentage points in Fine Gael's support, bringing their tally to 31 per cent. It is the highest score attributed to the party in a TNS mrbi opinion poll since 1989.
Fianna Fáil is now a long way from the heady 40 per cent it achieved last November and closer to the 2004 tally which saw it suffer in the European and local elections. However, the party has been lower and bounced back before.
Sinn Féin continues to make progress, so much so in fact, that the most recent gain of one percentage point brings it level with Labour on 10 per cent.
The core vote for the parties is: Fianna Fail 32 per cent (down 3 points); Fine Gael 23 per cent (up 4 points); Labour 7 per cent (down 1 point); Sinn Fein 8 per cent (up 1 point); Greens 4 per cent (down 2 points) PDs 2 per cent (up one point); Independents/Others 5 per cent (down 1 point); and undecided voters 19 per cent (up 1 point).
Satisfaction with the Government has also dropped by five points to 43 per cent, while Mr Ahern's own rating has dropped by three points to 53 per cent. Tanaiste, Michael McDowell, is down 12 points to 32 per cent, despite his party making gains of two points.
Mr Kenny's rating remains on 41 per cent while Pat Rabbitte is up one to 48 per cent. Mr Sargent is up three points to 43 per cent and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is down four to 46 per cent.