Fine Gael has six days in which to decide whether to hold the Tippperary South by-election before the Dail breaks for the summer.
The party is having great difficulty in making a decision. It is terrified it might be affected by matters raised at the Moriarty Tribunal but is also tempted by the prospect of a win which would provide a much-needed boost.
Mr Michael Noonan, the party leader, is refusing to reveal his intentions in relation to the contest. One deputy said yesterday the party had a "huge dilemma" in making the decision. It had been expected on Wednesday night, and again yesterday morning, but it will probably be next week before the party's decision is clear.
The party candidate, Senator Tom Hayes, said yesterday the matter was totally out of his hands. Asked if he had a preference for when it should be held, he said: "I'm ready and willing whenever the party want it."
A party spokeswoman said yesterday the question of holding the by-election was under constant review by the party leader. "The element of surprise that the Government has in relation to the general election we keep in relation to the by-election," she said.
The issue was discussed at the party's front-bench meeting on Tuesday. Some party members believe deputies should not be campaigning in the next few weeks when the threat of foot-and-mouth disease has not disappeared completely. They also feel that in the unlikely event of a No result on the Nice Treaty they would be blamed for having taken away attention from the Yes campaign, not to mention the devastating effect it would have on Mr Noonan's leadership.
"This morning I thought it would be held," one deputy said yesterday. "But now I think it could be October because that's when they want the boost. They've a huge dilemma."
The by-election is due to the death of Fine Gael TD Ms Theresa Ahearn last September. After a writ has been moved, the by-election must take place a minimum of three weeks later.
Last June, voters in the constituency elected the Independent candidate, Mr Seamus Healy, in a by-election caused by the death of Labour TD Mr Michael Ferris. The third TD in the constituency is the Fianna Fail Minister of State for Agriculture, Mr Noel Davern.