OPINION POLL: ANALYSIS:Micheál Martin's relatively high popularity is one of few positives for Fianna Fáil, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
THE FORMATION of a Fine Gael-Labour coalition after the election is regarded as by far the most likely outcome of the election, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Asked which of a number of coalition options was likely to form the next government, 41 per cent opted for Fine Gael and Labour.
The next most likely outcome, a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition, was far behind at 5 per cent, while just 4 per cent believe that a Fine Gael government backed by Independents is likely.
A coalition involving Labour, Sinn Féin and left-wing Independents is regarded as likely by just 3 per cent.
When asked which of the coalition options they would like to see being formed after the election, 34 per cent opted for Fine Gael and Labour, 11 per cent favoured Fine Gael and Independents, while 9 per cent wanted Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
Among voters who say they will not change their minds by election day, support for this Fine Gael and Labour option is stronger at 40 per cent.
Support for a coalition involving Labour, Sinn Féin and left-leaning parties and Independents came in at 12 per cent, while Fianna Fáil and Labour attract 9 per cent support.
A Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin-Independent coalition is the choice of just 3 per cent, while 9 per cent want none of the above and 14 per cent have no opinion.
Support for a Fine Gael-Labour coalition is naturally strongest among supporters of the two parties. Fifty-eight per cent of Fine Gael voters and 54 per cent of Labour back a new coalition between the parties.
By contrast, just 20 per cent of Fine Gael voters want to see a single-party government backed by Independents and only 11 per cent favour a coalition with Fianna Fáil.
The poll also shows that 54 per cent of the electorate would like to see Fine Gael in government one way or another.
Among Labour voters, 19 per cent want a coalition with Sinn Féin and left-leaning parties and Independents, while 7 per cent want a coalition with Fianna Fáil.
Fianna Fáil voters are divided on who they would like to see the party go into coalition with. Thirty-three per cent of them favour a Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition, 24 per cent favour a coalition with Fine Gael and 10 per cent would like to see their party in coalition with Sinn Féin and left-wing Independents.
As well as being the favoured option of the voters, a Fine Gael-Labour coalition is regarded as the most likely outcome.
The electorate is split three ways on the preferred choice for taoiseach after the election.
Eamon Gilmore is marginally ahead with 26 per cent, followed by Enda Kenny on 24 per cent and Micheál Martin on 23 per cent.
Gilmore has dropped 17 per cent since the last poll six weeks ago when voters were asked whether they would prefer to see him or Kenny head an alternative government. Kenny is down 4 per cent since that poll.
The relatively strong showing of Martin as the preferred choice for taoiseach is one of the few positives for Fianna Fáil in the poll. He has the backing of 76 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters, while Gilmore is supported by 72 per cent of Labour voters. Kenny is not as strong among Fine Gael voters as he should, be with 55 per cent of them opting for him.
A consolation for the Fine Gael leader is that among voters who say they will not change their minds by election day he is the choice for taoiseach among 32 per cent, ahead of Gilmore on 30 per cent and Martin on 21 per cent.
An overwhelming majority of voters believe Brian Cowen was right to resign as party leader before the election.
Ninety per cent said he was right to go, while just 6 per cent felt he should have stayed on.
Seventy-seven per cent felt he should also have resigned as Taoiseach when he stepped down from his party position.
Asked about the Green Party’s decision to leave Government, 16 per cent said it was the right thing to do, 55 per cent said the party should have done it sooner and 17 per cent said the party should have stayed on in power.
The result shows the scale of the challenge facing the party as it struggles to hold any of its Dáil seats.
The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll
This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of
The Irish Timesby Ipsos MRBI, among a national quota sample of 1,000 representative of the circa 3.2 million adults aged 18 upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland. Personal in-home interviewing took place on January 31st and February 1st and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by The Marketing Society of Ireland, and by ESOMAR.
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to
The Irish Timesand Ipsos MRBI.