Fine Gael has made a substantial gain in public support in the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll to suggest the alternative Fine Gael/Labour coalition has a real prospect of election, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Fianna Fáil has suffered a matching slump in support while there has also been a drop in satisfaction with the performance of the Government, the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste.
The changes come after the recent Fine Gael Ardfheis and have happened despite high profile coverage of Fianna Fáil and the Taoiseach last weekend.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 31 per cent, down 6 from the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll in January; Fine Gael 28 per cent, up 4; Labour 15 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 9 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 5 per cent, up 1; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; others and independents 9 per cent, up 1.
Core support is: Fianna Fáil 30 per cent, down 6; Fine Gael 21 per cent, up 3; Labour 11 per cent, down 1; Sinn Féin 7 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 4 per cent, up 1; Progressive Democrats 2 per cent, down 1; others and independents 8 per cent, up 1; undecided 17 per cent, up 2.
Fine Gael's support is at its highest since Enda Kenny became leader and indeed its highest poll rating since January 2000. Fianna Fáil support in contrast is just one point above the 30 per cent it achieved in September 2003, its lowest point since Irish Times/mrbi began some 25 years ago.
The Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats coalition parties have a combined support of just 34 per cent compared to 43 per cent for Fine Gael and Labour. The Green Party, currently on 5 per cent, is seen as a potential participant in a government involving Fine Gael and Labour, although it plans to fight the next election independent of alliances.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 people at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State. It took place after a weekend in which the Taoiseach received high profile coverage in relation to Fianna Fáil's 80th anniversary celebrations, but also in the wake of the Fine Gael Ardfheis the previous weekend.
Other events which may have influenced the outcome include the Taoiseach's admission that the Government's decentralisation programme will not meet its target, the rail strike early this week and last Monday's Prime Time programme detailing the poor conditions facing many patients attending hospital accident and emergency units.
Dissatisfaction with the Government is now higher than satisfaction. Some 40 per cent are satisfied with it, down 6 points. Some 50 per cent are dissatisfied, up 4, and 10 per cent have no opinion, up 2.
The Taoiseach's satisfaction rating is at 52 per cent, down 4, his dissatisfaction rating is 39 per cent, up 2, while 9 per cent have no opinion, up 2. He nevertheless remains well ahead of all other party leaders in terms of voter approval of his performance.
Satisfaction with the Tánaiste has also fallen and is down 5 points to 34 per cent, her lowest ever rating. Some 54 per cent are dissatisfied with her performance, up 2 while 12 per cent have no opinion, up 3.
Enda Kenny's personal rating remains at 40 per cent, the same figure he achieved last January. Some 27 per cent are dissatisfied down 2, and 33 per cent have no opinion, up 1.
Pat Rabbitte sees a drop in approval of his performance as Labour leader from 48 to 41 per cent. Some 24 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, down 1 and 35 per cent have no opinion, up 8.
Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams has a 39 per cent satisfaction rating, down 1 point since January. Some 30 per cent are dissatisfied with his performance, down 5, while 31 per cent have no opinion, up 5.
Finally Green Party leader Trevor Sargent sees a 3-point increase in his satisfaction rating to 35 per cent. Some 20 per cent are dissatisfied, down 4 and 45 per cent have no opinion, up 1.
Support for both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is considerably lower in Dublin than nationally. Labour in contrast is doing much better in the capital than elsewhere. Dublin voters are seen as more volatile than average, and a considerable number of marginal seats are in Dublin city constituencies.
The percentage vote for the parties in the 2002 general election was: Fianna Fáil 42 per cent, Fine Gael 22 per cent, Labour 11 per cent, Sinn Féin 7 per cent, Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, Green Party 4 per cent, others and independents 11 per cent. The Taoiseach said last weekend that he would call the next general election for May or June of next year.