Laois/Offaly:For those who like to speak of politics as a jungle and senior politicians as "big beasts", they don't come much bigger than Brian Cowen and Tom Parlon, who also happen to represent the same constituency of Laois/Offaly.
Cowen is regarded as a racing certainty for the Fianna Fáil leadership when Bertie Ahern finally steps down. Parlon is a former president of the Irish Farmers' Association and serves as Minister of State in Cowen's department, with special responsibility for public works.
Cowen's return to Dáil Éireann at the top of the poll is considered a sure thing locally, but the question is whether he can once again bring two party colleagues with him. Parlon's political future is also under a cloud, given the choppy waters the Progressive Democrats have encountered in recent times.
The Fine Gael vote went into meltdown here in 2002. The party's share fell by more than 5 per cent and Charlie Flanagan, son of long-standing Dáil representative Oliver J. Flanagan, lost his seat. Fine Gael was left with only one deputy to Fianna Fáil's three: Olwyn Enright took the seat vacated by her father, Tom, who retired at the last election.
Labour's vote also dropped sharply, by just over 9 per cent. The joint beneficiaries of the Fine Gael and Labour decline were the PDs and Sinn Féin. Fine Gael is in a much healthier state this time around, but the late surge by Fianna Fáil in the opinion polls has to be a cause of concern to the main Opposition party.
Enright has enjoyed a high profile as her party's education spokeswoman. Local opinion sees her as a fairly safe bet to retain her seat. For his part, Flanagan will not be unduly concerned as to whether he takes a seat from the PDs or Fianna Fáil. Fine Gael had no candidate in Tullamore in 2002 but has rectified the mistake by running public health nurse Molly Buckley, who stood as an Independent last time, receiving a creditable 1,695 first preferences.
Parlon is facing a major battle to retain his seat. He is starting from a strong base, having secured more than 9,000 first preferences last time. The atmosphere is not especially PD-friendly in this election, but he could drop 2,000 votes and still have a chance of getting through.
As the PDs wrestled with their consciences recently on whether to remain in Government, Parlon came across as a strong advocate for staying the course. This may help him attract Fianna Fáil transfers. As well as fighting off Flanagan from Fine Gael, he will have to contend with Sinn Féin's Brian Stanley, mayor of Portlaoise, who is expected to improve significantly on his 4 per cent share in 2002.
The electorate has three main options: (a) ensure their constituency remains "Parlon country"; (b) send Flanagan back, either at the expense of Fianna Fáil, the PDs or Enright; (c) keep Cowen smiling by allowing Fianna Fáil to keep its three seats.
If Fianna Fáil was to drop a seat, the obvious loser would seem to be Seán Fleming, chairman of the Oireachtas Committee on Finance and the Public Service. Fleming was 1,002 first preferences behind John Moloney on the first count in 2002. But this is not an unbridgeable gap and Fleming has had five years to close it.
Cowen is bound to have a significant surplus and last time his transfers went to Fleming rather than Moloney at a ratio of nearly three to one. The colourful John Foley, originally from Kerry, is a new name on the Fianna Fáil ticket.
Local sources say vote management is going to be Fianna Fáil's big challenge. There is also a "sympathy vote" for Flanagan, on the basis that he was hard done by last time. Defeat for Parlon would be a huge blow to the PDs, but he is, as one observer put it, a "formidable operator".
It's a hard one to call: in the end, Parlon should make it, courtesy of Fianna Fáil transfers, with Fleming or Moloney losing out to Flanagan. Whatever the result, there probably won't be four government seats in Laois/Offaly.
VERDICT: FF - 2; FG - 2; PD - 1 (FG to gain seat from FF)
