Fischer hopes Irish can break treaty stalemate

Germany: German Foreign Minister Mr Joschka Fischer will reiterate in Dublin this morning his hope that the Irish presidency…

Germany: German Foreign Minister Mr Joschka Fischer will reiterate in Dublin this morning his hope that the Irish presidency of the EU will manage to break the deadlock over the constitutional treaty.

But there was little sign of a compromise on Saturday evening after Mr Fischer met his French and Polish counterparts for dinner in Berlin. The Polish Prime Minister, Mr Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, was the only one to speak to the press afterward. He said that a deal was "possible in the next weeks . . . we will seize the initiative very soon".

Officials in the foreign ministry in Berlin are considerably more cautious: they speak optimistically about how, from Paris to Warsaw, "everyone is talking to everyone" about a compromise. But they say that only a magic formula will have to be put forward by Dublin in March or April to end the dispute.

"Ireland is very suitable as a neutral negotiator," said the official. "For Poland it would be very difficult to make concessions to Germany because of history: it might be interpreted as another defeat. Agreeing with a suggestion from Ireland could be a different matter entirely."

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Poland and Spain are anxious to retain their 25 votes each at the Council of Ministers, just two votes short of Germany which has a population larger than the two countries combined.

Berlin is standing its ground for decisions to be passed by "double majority", a majority of countries representing 60 per cent of the population. It finds unacceptable the suggestion - most recently aired by the Polish Foreign Minster - to retain the existing system but give Berlin two extra votes.

German officials are continually pointing out that pushing for the double majority isn't a power grab by larger states but a matter of principle to prevent blocking minorities and to future-proof institutions in an EU of 25.

Recent discussion of a multi-speed Europe will loom large over Mr Fischer's lunch today with the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen.

Mr Fischer said at a recent conference in Berlin attended by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern: "No one wants a new division of the continent through a Europe of multiple speeds . . . but if we don't get \ we will get a multi-speed Europe, whether we like it or not." He remarked at the conference that the December summit failed because some countries placed their national interests above the common goal of a closer union, with Poland the unspoken target of his remark.

"Brussels failed because the Poles said they could not move. The lesson we learned is that the domestic political situation in Poland plays a role that cannot be underestimated," said an official in the foreign ministry, referring to the minority administration in Warsaw. But its decision to open a national debate next month about the constitution suggests the ground is being prepared for concessions.