THE RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, has warned that trouble is inevitable this marching season.
He also stated that the IRA is planning to escalate its campaign of violence following the murder of two police officers in Lurgan, and that the faltering loyalist paramilitary ceasefire is in danger of crumbling. He said these were "dangerous times".
His disturbing prognosis for the coming months was made in Belfast yesterday where Mr Flanagan, in publishing his annual report, appealed to both communities in Northern Ireland to play their part in preventing violence on the streets this summer.
His report comes after two of his constables were killed in Lurgan and after loyalist paramilitaries failed in an attempt to kill the Sinn Fein councillor, Mr James McCarry, in Ballycastle, Co Antrim, on Thursday.
Mr Flanagan said the community must not fall into despair or hopelessness. He appealed to both communities to "isolate the extremists on both sides".
Mr Flanagan said he had no intelligence to suggest that the IRA was contemplating a renewed ceasefire.
On the contrary, the evidence was that the IRA was planning to increase its level of violence, in particular targeting his officers and British soldiers. Equally, he said there was no evidence to suggest that the IRA was split on a ceasefire.
The IRA was still a "cohesive" force and there were no indications of divisions within its ranks on its strategy, Mr Flanagan said.
He denied some reports that there were plans to bring in police officers from Britain to help the RUC during the expected Drumcree protest, and other possible subsequent civil disturbances. He said in future years police may be drafted in from Britain in such instances.
On reports that a British army battalion was being specially trained in Britain to assist police during the coming marching season, Mr Flanagan said the RUC had "contingency plans" to cope with another Drumcree type crisis, and this could include bringing in extra British troops.
In relation to some suggestions that the RUC was planning to allow the Drumcree Orange parade down the nationalist Garvaghy Road on Sunday July 6th, the Chief Constable said "categorically" no decision had been taken either way.
Unlike last year, the decision on whether to allow or to reroute the parade will not be made at the "last minute", he said.
A decision which would not be reversed could probably be expected about three or four days before the parade. It would not be taken until every opportunity was explored to try to find an accommodation.
Mr Flanagan said a decision by Orangemen to apply for a series of marches in the week after Drumcree was "distinctly unhelpful".
He said that "obviously there will be trouble" over Drumcree, irrespective of what decision was taken. "I would be naive to expect otherwise. It would be wrong of me to give the impression that there will be no trouble. There are too many people who want there to be trouble for that not to be the case."
The Chief Constable said he feared that the loyalist paramilitary ceasefire appeared to be "crumbling". The three constituent parts of the Combined Loyalist Military Command - the UDA, UVF, and Red Hand Commando had undoubtedly engaged in acts of terrorism, despite the claim that the ceasefire was still intact.
In addition, the recently formed Loyalist Volunteer Force was a serious threat. He said he had no intelligence that loyalist paramilitaries were planning attacks in the South.
The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, said in Belfast yesterday that she would continue her efforts to try to broker an agreement of the marching dispute.
"I think the majority of people are quite fearful. Both communities are quite scared of what could happen. But there's no doom in this camp. We will keep going until the end because I believe in the end common sense has a chance of working through, and that is what we are there for."
Mr Flanagan praised the Garda Siochana for a decision to fly the Tricolour at half mast over Garda headquarters in the Phoenix Park following the IRA murders of Constables Roland John Graham and David Johnston. This was the first time such a tribute, which was carried out on the instructions of the Garda Commissioner, Mr Pat Byrne, was paid to murdered RUC officers.
Mr Flanagan viewed the decision as significant. "It meant a lot to me, as it did to the families of the officers," he said.
