CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:NORTHERN IRELAND is not known for its vast numbers of floating voters, those who flit from party to party at election time.
However, one key constituency west of the Bann will have potentially 12,000 votes which went Independent last time.
West Tyrone provided one of those pivotal moments in the 2001 election, the capture of the seat by Sinn Féin’s Pat Doherty from the Ulster Unionists.
Sinn Féin’s victory was particularly gratifying for two reasons – it was key to that party’s proclaimed “greening of the west” during that election and it marked a damaging defeat for the SDLP.
While West Tyrone has been equated with success in the minds of republicans, it is equally linked to electoral disaster in the estimation of the SDLP. Nine years ago it ran a high-profile campaign with deputy leader Bríd Rodgers on the ticket. She came in third behind Mr Doherty and William Thompson of the Ulster Unionists.
The scale of the setback has haunted the party ever since.
The SDLP no longer has any Assembly members here. Sinn Féin has three of the six, the DUP has two and Independent local GP Kieran Deeny has the last seat.
Dr Deeny based his campaign on the retention of the local hospital in Omagh and ran for the Westminster seat in 2005. He came second, drawing votes from the SDLP which won just under 4,000 votes in 2005, thus shedding 10,000 votes in four years. However, the Omagh family doctor is not running this time, leaving a potentially pivotal bloc of votes up for grabs.
The SDLP’s Joe Byrne, a former Assembly member, insists the worst is over for his party. This election will see the party rebuilding, he says, and he is confident the SDLP will have a West Tyrone Assembly member after next year’s election.
Pat Doherty, a former vice-chairman of Sinn Féin, is a significant force within the party. But while Mr Doherty is a major player within the party, Sinn Féin is also a significant player in West Tyrone. Three Assembly members and no fewer than 17 local councillors adds up to a weighty presence on the ground during an election. It is the type of advantage that should play well for Sinn Féin when it attempts to colonise the significant pool of voters that opted for Dr Deeny’s hospital protest campaign last time.
Also in the fight for such voters is Alliance’s Michael Bower.
If the SDLP faces a challenge in West Tyrone, the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists New Force face a bigger one.
From winning the Westminster seat in 1997, Sir Reg Empey’s party no longer has an Assembly member here.
Its candidate, Ross Hussey, brother of defeated Assembly candidate Derek, is aiming to ease DUP man Tom Buchanan’s grip on the unionist electorate.