A bird flu pandemic risks triggering a global recession, the Asian Development Bank said today, as Indonesia treated three young children suspected of being the latest victims of the virus.
Five Southeast Asian nations said they would boost cooperation to fight the virus, which has killed 62 people in Asia and infected 122 since late 2003. The disease has since spread to Europe and it is feared migratory birds could carry it to Africa.
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan told a conference in New York today that bird flu's rapid spread could spell the end of a lifestyle dominant in much of Asia and Africa, where people live alongside their domestic animals.
The ADB said a year-long shock from bird flu in humans would cost Asian economies as much as $283 billion and would reduce the region's gross domestic product by 6.5 percentage points, hitting the trading hubs of Hong Kong and Singapore the hardest.
"Avian flu presents a major potential challenge to the development of the region, perhaps the most serious since the financial crisis of 1997," said the Manila-based ADB. "A pandemic will likely slow or halt economic growth in Asia and lead to a significant reduction in trade, particularly of services. In the long run, potential economic growth will be lower and poverty will increase."
The World Bank, in its twice-yearly report on East Asia's economies, said today avian flu was a big risk to growth in 2006 due to potential policy actions such as quarantines and travel restrictions.
In Indonesia, where four people have died of bird flu since July, Health Minister Siti Fadillah Supari said three children, all under the age of 5, had high fever, shortness of breath and signs of viral infection.
Asked by a reporter whether test results had been received, Supari said: "Not yet, maybe in two or three days hopefully, because this is a holiday, but looking at the symptoms ... there's a large possibility that it is bird flu." In Vietnam, the country hardest hit by the virus, a senior health official ruled out bird flu as the cause of last week's deaths of two people, state newspapers said.
But they said a 25-year-old woman was in hospital with suspected bird flu. Bird flu has infected more than 90 people in Vietnam and 41 have died since the latest outbreak in Asia began in late 2003. Experts fear the virus could mutate into a form easily passed between people and unleash a pandemic.