Irish troops have been warned they will be seen as enemy forces in Chad, writes Mary Fitzgerald, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
To get some sense of the tangled power play that has made Chad one of Africa's least stable nations, consider the case of Mahamat Nour. Last year, thirtysomething Nour was the leader of a Sudanese-backed rebel group that came close to capturing Chad's capital N'Djamena in an attempted coup. Today, he is defence minister, having signed a peace deal with president Idriss Deby last December. Already there are mutterings in N'Djamena that all is not well between Deby and his rebel-turned-minister. In a country where politics is riven by ethnic and tribal rivalries, such shifting loyalties barely raise an eyebrow and truces are greeted with no little scepticism.
Last week, yet another peace agreement began to fray, prompting bloody clashes that left hundreds of rebels and government troops dead in the borderlands of eastern Chad. The fighting comes amid increasing concerns that a proposed EU force charged with protecting civilians in the region may be delayed due to a lack of vital equipment. Last week, the Dáil approved the participation of up to 450 Irish soldiers in the mission.
One of the main factors contributing to the delay is the lack of suitable aircraft. The EU force, which will be led by Lieut Gen Pat Nash of the Irish Army, needs 10 extra helicopters to ensure it can properly police the vast scrubland of Chad's troubled eastern flank. Home to almost 400,000 Darfuri refugees and displaced Chadians, the area has been convulsed by violence in recent years. A spilling over of the conflict in neighbouring Darfur has only added to local unrest caused by ethnic and tribal tensions, roaming bandits, and rebel factions battling to oust Deby.
"The situation is very complex, volatile and difficult to predict," says Philippe Rougier, who oversees Concern's operations in Chad. "It is not just one side against the other. The widespread proliferation of arms in the area also contributes hugely to its instability."
Caught in the middle are those the EU force is mandated to protect - refugees and displaced Chadians sheltering in camps dotted around the area. The troops will also help facilitate the delivery of aid and the free movement of humanitarian personnel.
"Our work has become increasingly difficult," says Fatma Samoura Diouf, from the UN's Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha). "We have lost more than 70 vehicles in car-jackings in the last 18 months, which means our efforts to reach as many people as possible with food and aid have been hampered." According to the Irish Defence Forces, the threat level posed by armed groups in the area has been assessed as medium risk. "Rebel and bandit groups using 4x4 pick-up vehicles and hit-and-run tactics" constitute the main threat, the Minister for Defence, Willie O'Dea told the Dáil last week. Such groups "operate opportunistically - they concentrate and dissipate quickly when engaging weaker targets including aid workers, the local population and weaker military elements," he said, adding that they did not have the potential "for any prolonged engagement".
The fact that French troops will form the backbone of the UN-mandated mission could present major challenges. Chad's former colonial power retains a significant military presence in the country, with French troops openly assisting Deby's battle against rebel forces. During the attempted coup last year, French Mirage fighter jets fired warning shots at the rebels as they advanced on N'Djamena. One rebel leader recently complained the French were carrying out reconnaissance flights over rebel positions for the Chadian government.
Yesterday, the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) rebel group declared a "state of war" against French and foreign military forces in an apparent warning to the forthcoming deployment.
On Thursday, another faction warned it would fight the European force as a "foreign occupation army" if it is perceived to side with Deby.
Politicians in Austria, which will send 160 troops as part of the EU mission, last week debated an internal defence ministry report warning that French support for Deby meant there was a risk that the European force could be drawn into direct fighting between rebels and government forces.
"The strong involvement of the French is naturally being seen with some scepticism here and there," says Austrian defence minister Norbert Darabos.
François Grignon, Africa director for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, says that while the EU force is mandated to protect civilians and facilitate humanitarian access, some Chadians may suspect it of bolstering Deby and of helping him regain control of the restive eastern region.
"Because it is deploying in an area where French forces actively support the Chadian army, there is a risk of confusion. The EU force will struggle to establish its own identity and make sure its mandate is fully understood."
Perhaps mindful of this, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern, was careful to stress on a recent visit to Chad and Sudan that Ireland's participation in the EU deployment was humanitarian. "They fully understand that as a nation we come with no strategic interests with regard to Africa," the Minister said after meetings with officials including Chad's prime minister and defence minister.
CHAD'S FOREIGN MINISTER, Ahmat Allam-Mi, told The Irish Times in a telephone interview yesterday that the government did not want the EU force to get caught up in its fight against rebel forces. "We expect them to help secure the refugee camps but not protect the regime," he said. "We never said we needed a foreign force to come to defend the government. The regime is able to defend itself." Allam-Mi insisted the government had managed to contain the rebels following last week's clashes. He claimed the groups involved were armed and supported by Sudan in a bid to discourage the EU deployment. "The major threats have now been dealt with," he said. "As far as we are concerned, Sudan has failed to discourage the international intervention in eastern Chad. It will have no impact on the EU force."
Among those who shelter in the camps, there are mixed views on the deployment. Some of the 8,000 displaced Chadians who live in the Koubigou camp told The Irish Times recently that they hoped the force would help stabilise the area so they could return to their home villages. Others were more sceptical. "There won't be enough soldiers to protect us," said one woman. Another claimed security was not the worst of the problems faced by camp residents. "Food and health are more important," she said.
But the EU deployment is only part of the solution, say observers. A wider political strategy that focuses on the underlying causes of violence in eastern Chad is crucial. "A military solution is not enough," says Rougier. "A political process must be encouraged, one that includes reconciliation initiatives at local village level as well as moves towards disarmament." Grignon agrees, saying: "Without a genuine, structured peace process to address the root causes of the Chadian conflict, the region will remain unstable and violence will erupt again."
Meanwhile, efforts continue to make up the shortfall in resources needed for a successful EU deployment. While initial plans aimed to have the mission launched by early December, a January or even February starting date now looks more likely. Many observers believe last week's violence underscores the need for the European force to deploy as soon as possible.
Tawanda Hondora, deputy director of Amnesty International's Africa programme, says the failure of countries to pledge essential equipment is putting lives at risk and is setting up the mission to fail in its efforts to stabilise the region.
"Words and hand-wringing are not enough. The international community must now demonstrate its sincerity in trying to solve this ongoing crisis by putting its money where its mouth is and providing the necessary equipment."