ETHIOPIA: Out in the rolling golden prairie landscape south of Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, farmers are busy gathering what promises to be a bumper harvest. Everywhere there are newly cut stacks of wheat, maize and teff, the grain used to produce injera, a flat pancake which is one of the staples of the Ethiopian diet, writes Kieran Cooke in Addis Ababa
Preliminary estimates indicate that the 2003-2004 harvest could be one of the best ever, with production nearly 50 per cent up on last year. Yet even with the record crop, between five and six million of Ethiopia's 70 million population will, in the coming months, be "chronically food-insecure", a UN term for those at, or near, the point of starvation.
This paradox in the fortunes of one of the world's poorest countries in which per-capita incomes stand at barely €100 per year is largely due to misguided international aid policies, according to Dr Tewolde Egziabher, a respected Ethiopian scientist and the country's de-facto environment minister.
"Prices will crash as farmers, in desperate need of some income, sell their produce," says Dr Tewolde. "More financial help is needed to establish such market mechanisms as a grain board, capable of buying in the surplus in order to stabilise prices and build up food stocks.
"But western antipathy to state interference in the market and a dogmatic belief in the private sector - particularly in the US and at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund - is stopping our government from borrowing funds for such purposes.
"Ethiopia is capable of achieving food self-sufficiency, but ill-advised policies are condemning us to a future of being permanently dependent on international food aid."
It seems the Ethiopian government, along with some in the donor community, are taking note of Dr Tewolde's views. At a recent meeting with donor countries Mr Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia's Prime Minister, announced a $3 billion plan aimed at achieving overall food security within the next five years. The plan stresses the need for cash to improve agricultural production and infrastructure rather than food aid.
"We are convinced that unless we reverse the trend of food insecurity within three to five years the problem will get out of hand," says Mr Meles.
While the EU is sourcing more of its food aid to Ethiopia from surrounding countries and is putting greater emphasis on addressing Ethiopia's infrastructure and land despoliation problems, the bulk of the US's $500 million annual aid budget comes in the form of US-sourced agricultural products.
Out in the countryside the threat of famine is never far away. In the mid-1980s up to a million perished as the result of a prolonged drought. Last year the rains again stayed away: a disaster was only averted through a well-organised government and international aid effort.
Mr Gurmu Ayaba, a farmer near the town of Koka south of Addis Ababa, considers himself fortunate. He and his family of six have two hectares of land. Most families have to exist on just one. Yet, though he says his harvest will be the best ever, he does not have the facilities - nor can he afford - to store his crops for any length of time.
"I have to sell no matter what the price is at the market," he says. "I need to buy new seeds. I have to have money to buy clothes for my children, to send them to school."
The lack of transport and the chronic state of most of the roads mean food might be plentiful in one area while only a few miles away people starve.
"In the late 1990s we had a succession of good harvests," says Dr Tewolde. "If we had an effective private sector we would have begun building up reserves then, and there would have been some price stability. The private sector here is just not developed enough to do those things."
Over the last two years Ethiopia has been further hit by the worldwide slump in the price of coffee, its main export. In many areas in the south farmers traditionally earned extra cash through coffee production. Now there is growing evidence of severe malnutrition in regions previously unaffected by famine.
A key ingredient of Mr Meles's food security progamme is the resettlement of people from overcrowded to less densely populated parts of the country, with more than two million being moved over the next three years.
Although the government insists the resettlement will be voluntary, donor countries have voiced concern about the lack of preparations and the dangers in moving people to lowland zones where malaria is rife.
Says Dr Tewolde: "We need western financial and organisational help. Food aid might have stopped people starving in the past, but it's not a long-term solution."