CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Dublin West: Given the resurgence in Labour's fortunes, Joan Burton is in with a chance, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
Labour's Ms Joan Burton is hoping to return to the Dáil in the revised three-seat Dublin West.
Ms Burton, a junior minister in the Rainbow Coalition, lost her seat in 1997, when the constituency had four TDs.
That election marked a good result for Fianna Fáil, with Mr Brian Lenihan and Mr Liam Lawlor taking seats.
Mr Lawlor, a witness at the Flood Tribunal who served two jail terms during the last Dáil, subsequently resigned from the party and is not seeking re-election.
The other two seats were taken by Fine Gael's Mr Austin Currie and Mr Joe Higgins, of the Socialist Party.
With Mr Currie moving to the new Dublin Mid-West constituency, the party's candidate is Ms Sheila Terry, a former PD county councillor and general election candidate.
Mr Lenihan, who gained a high profile as chairman of the all-party committee on the Constitution, is expected to head the poll and retain his seat.
His running mate is Ms Deirdre Doherty-Ryan, a member of South Dublin County Council.
Mr Higgins, a consistently impressive Dáil performer, is also expected to hold his seat. This would leave Ms Burton and Ms Terry battling it out for the remaining seat.
Ms Burton was one of the victims of the slide in Labour's fortunes in the last election.
Her vote declined from the high of 22.60 per cent in the "Spring tide" of 1992 to 12.11 per cent.
However, she remained in contention for a seat, outpolling Mr Lawlor until a 45 per cent PD transfer helped him secure a seat.
Given the resurgence in Labour's fortunes, and the fact that only two out of the outgoing TDs are seeking re-election, Ms Burton is in with a strong chance of returning to the Dáil.
Standing as an Independent, Ms Terry topped the poll with 2,057 first preferences in the Castleknock electoral area in the 1999 local elections.
She will put in a strong fight for the seat once held by Mr Currie, and the scale of her vote will be influenced by how well Fine Gael is doing in the capital.
The PD candidate is Mr Tommy Morrissey, a former Fine Gael councillor, who polled 3,050 first preferences in 1997. Although he is expected to secure a respectable vote, his chances of a seat are slim. However, the destination of his transfers could have a significant impact on the overall result.
The Green Party candidate is Ms Selina Bonnie, while Sinn Féin is running Ms Mary Lou McDonald.
Prediction: FF 1; SP 1; Lab 1.
FG loss.