ITALY: Romano Prodi has ability and willpower, but his problems are only beginning, writes Paddy Agnew in Rome
Long before he so narrowly won this week's general election, Italian prime minister-elect Romano Prodi knew all too well that he faces a daunting task if he is to realise his electoral slogan, namely to "Get Italy Going Again".
When he takes office next month, the former European Commission president will be faced with the complex question of just how to kick-start Italy's sluggish economy while at the same time holding together his multi-coloured, centre-left coalition.
First indications suggest that a majority (admittedly narrow) of the Italian electorate rejected media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi in favour of Mr Prodi because they hope he will create a more favourable macroeconomic climate in which job security is increased and the cost of living contained.
Throughout a bitter electoral campaign, one of the most striking differences between Mr Prodi and prime minister Berlusconi was their contrasting analysis of Italy's current economic situation.
While Mr Prodi insisted that five years of Berlusconi government had left Italy in cultural, political and, above all, economic crisis, Mr Berlusconi regularly dismissed negative analysis, arguing that the alleged Italian decline was "a theory invented by the left" to gain power.
Italians would appear to have looked into their wallets and concluded that Mr Prodi's analysis is the more accurate.
The problem now facing the prime minister-elect is just how to implement the sort of economic policies (reduction of public service expenditure, reform of Italy's lopsided pensions system, increased labour market flexibility, the fight on tax evasion, to name but the obvious) that many economic analysts believe are necessary if Italy is to climb out of its recent sustained period of economic stagnation and deteriorating international competitiveness.
There is no doubting either Mr Prodi's ability or his political willpower. His biggest problem concerns his ability to go down the road of fiscal rectitude while maintaining the support of a government coalition that will rely on the votes of hardline Rifondazione Communista.
Remember, eight years ago, it was Rifondazione which pulled the rug from under Mr Prodi when it disagreed with his economic policies.
At the beginning of last month, the new governor of the Bank of Italy, Mario Draghi, made the following observation: "The structural lags of the Italian economy are not the signs of inevitable decline. They are manifestations of problems that are profound and serious but that can be overcome. We need to devise lasting solutions and explain them to the public."
Will Mr Prodi get the chance to "devise" just such "lasting solutions", especially now that he has such a narrow majority in the senate?
Leaving aside jobs and the economy, Mr Prodi is also certain to face tensions with his allies on a whole range of social and foreign policy issues ranging from the war in Iraq to the future of state education and on to the legal status of unmarried and gay couples.
When The Irish Times recently asked Mr Prodi if he risked repeating his 1998 experience, he was adamant that this would not happen.
He argues that this time all his coalition allies (Democratic Left, Margherita, Rifondazione Communista, Radicals, the Italian Communists, Greens and the small party of former anti-corruption investigator Antonio Di Pietro) have signed up to his government programme and will stick with it. That, frankly, remains to be seen.
Another obvious problem for Mr Prodi concerns his opponent Silvio Berlusconi.
To some extent, the defeated prime minister converted the election into a referendum on himself, putting his own personality, his own media empire and his own judicial problems at the centre of the debate.
Will Mr Prodi's government maintain its electoral promise to enact serious conflict of interests legislation which would, inevitably, greatly reduce Mr Berlusconi's ability to use his huge wealth and his media empire to shape Italian politics?
In five years between 1996 and 2001, three successive centre-left governments shamefully failed to address the issue.
Will the new government repeal many, if any, of the 15 ad personam laws enacted by Mr Berlusconi either to resolve his own judicial problems or favour his TV empire?
Will the new government attempt to repeal yet another of Mr Berlusconi's controversial reforms, that which saw Italy return to a 100 per cent proportional representation vote last weekend? If he does, will the smaller parties in his coalition go along with him? PR favours smaller parties such as Rifondazione.
What, if any, gesture will Mr Prodi make to the judiciary, which for five years has been under attack as it fended off the unrelenting aggression of prime minister-cum-defendant Berlusconi?
On one front, however, Mr Prodi is unlikely to encounter problems.
Italy's senior EU partners are certain to welcome the end of the most eurosceptic Italian government since the foundation of the EU in 1957, greeting with open arms a former European Commission president.
Over the next five years, Mr Prodi is certain to encounter greater difficulties at home than abroad. That is, of course, providing he lasts five years.