The Mobillion family have been making champagne at Sacy, near Reims, for 400 years, and the record warm weather in France worries them immensely.
"This is the season for pruning the vines," explains Francine Mobillion. "Sap bubbles out when the workers cut the branches, which is a bad sign. It means the vines are about to bud. If they do, and the temperatures later go down to minus three or four, it's adieu to this year's harvest."
Last autumn, the Mobillions harvested their grapes three weeks early, because of hot weather in July and September. August was cold. "The weather is like a yo-yo," Mobillion says. "Even humans are unsettled by it. There are chickenpox outbreaks in schools all over France, which is unusual this time of year, and a lot of gastro-enteritis. Cold, dry weather would kill the germs.
"In the countryside, we feel these things more," Mobillion continues. "We're not in form; we're sluggish, because the weather's too warm for the season." Neighbouring farmers in the Champagne region complain that their colza fields are blooming a month and a half early, and weevils have set in.
The ground hasn't frozen this winter. "It needs to freeze to make it crumbly, so they can plough and sow the barley," Mobillion says. "The alfalfa was cut in mid-November, and it's already 10 to 15cm high, as if it were springtime. The wheat and beetroot are also ahead of schedule."
January 9th broke all records in France, says Dominique Raspaud, a meteorologist for Météo France. That night, the thermometer did not go below 12 degrees in Paris. It reached 19 degrees in Marseille, and 14 degrees in the northern city of Lille - where six degrees is a normal temperature in January.
As a result of the mild winter, coats and jumpers are left untouched in the January sales. Migrating birds failed to go south. Hibernating animals have emerged from their dens. Raspaud says last autumn was the mildest since Météo France began keeping records in 1950, with average temperatures 2.9 degrees above the norm. The whole of 2006 was warm, coming second only to 2003, the year of the heatwave that killed some 15,000 elderly people in France. The trend has been noticeable for 15 years, Raspaud says, and is evidence of lasting climate change.
Météo France predicted 15 degrees in Paris for Thursday and Friday, and close to 20 degrees in southwest France. The present weather originated there, with masses of warm air blowing in from the Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to end - at least temporarily - with a return to cold weather tomorrow. - Lara Marlowe