FRANCE: One question was a sure-fire indicator of how Socialist Party members were voting yesterday in France's first presidential primary: will there be a second round?
Those who said No voted for Ségolène Royal, deputy in the National Assembly, president of the Poitou-Charentes region and former minister for the environment. Over the past six weeks, Ms Royal has turned the socialist primary into a plebiscite on her personality.
If Ms Royal wins more than 50 per cent of the votes cast by up to 218,771 party members between 4pm and 10pm last night, she will be invested as the socialists' presidential candidate on November 26th - the first time a woman has stood a serious chance of becoming president of France.
At the Moulin Vert social centre for the elderly, transformed into a polling station for the 1,700 registered socialists in Paris's 14th arrondissement yesterday, Ms Royal's supporters predicted she would win 55-65 per cent. Nationwide results were expected early this morning.
Those who predicted a second round - often with the plaintive words "I hope so" - invariably turned out to be supporters of the former finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn or former prime minister Laurent Fabius. Both men claim they could beat Ms Royal if there is a run-off on November 23rd.
A poll in Libération newspaper this week showed that 46 per cent of the French population believe Ms Royal is best placed to defeat the right in next spring's presidential election; 24 per cent placed more confidence in Mr Strauss-Kahn, and only 8 per cent believed in Mr Fabius's chances.
There are no polls of registered party members, but Ms Royal has scored well into the 60 percentile range in surveys of self-described socialist supporters.
A poll published yesterday showed Ms Royal and the right-wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy would tie, 50-50, if the election were held now. The Dumilieu family - mother, father and adult daughter - all voted for her.
"We need a woman who listens and understands," said Simone (67), a retired town hall employee. "The male politicians think they're above us."
Mr Strauss-Kahn has twice been accused of orchestrating dirty tricks in the campaign: when his supporters drowned out Ms Royal at a Paris rally and last week, when one of his supporters put an amateur video of her on the internet, shot last winter without her knowledge. In it, she suggested that teachers should spend 35 hours a week in their schoolrooms - not just the 18 hours required at present.
"They played dirty because she's a woman," Ms Dumilieu said. "Women are badly treated in this country. Their salaries are so much lower."
Mr Strauss-Kahn said Ms Royal revealed her ignorance in a debate on foreign policy.
"She doesn't know anything about these issues," he said. "Memorising kitchen recipes is fine, but they should reintroduce prompters, like in the theatre, so she doesn't look ridiculous."
Ms Royal this week denounced both Mr Strauss-Kahn and Mr Fabius - who once asked who would look after her four children should she stand for the presidency - as "macho".
Stéphane Hessel (89) walked jauntily down the rain-soaked lane leading to the polling station. Mr Hessel was twice France's ambassador to the United Nations. He hoped Ms Royal would win in a single round because "it will give her the strength she needs to confront Mr Sarkozy" and would "calm down the other two [ Strauss-Kahn and Fabius]".
Michèle Solat (58), a retired journalist, was one of the few Strauss-Kahn voters I found.
"If you have to choose between someone who takes three days to catch on and someone who takes two years, I prefer someone quick," she said, quoting former socialist prime minister Michel Rocard.
Two activists in their early 20s voted for Mr Fabius "because he represents the true left". There are widespread rumours that Mr Fabius will contest results if the vote is close. He risks dividing the party again, as he did over the referendum on the European constitutional treaty.
Olivier (24) didn't want to give his family name because he is looking for a job with the Socialist Party. He voted for Ms Royal "because the other two represent the establishment which I don't identify with, where I feel there's no place for me. She's the only one who can shake things up, and unfortunately, the Socialist Party needs it."