IRAQ: After six weeks of tedious and sometimes acrimonious negotiations, it has all come down to the interpretation of the phrase "material breach".
Yesterday, US and French diplomats at the UN Security Council were locked in debate over a US resolution on disarming Iraq that declares Baghdad to be in "material breach" of previous UN resolutions.
The French, with the reported backing of most of the 15-member council, objects to the phrase as a "hidden trigger" that could permit the US to go to war with Iraq regardless of the outcome of new inspections and without further approval of the Security Council.
As the two sides square off, the Bush administration has been assessing support for its resolution among the 15-member Security Council.
It has concluded that Ireland and Mexico will take some convincing, according to a report in the New York Times, but that the UK, Bulgaria, Colombia, Guinea and Norway are in the bag and that Cameroon and Singapore could be easily persuaded.
Mauritius's support is not assured and Syria is expected to vote against. Without Ireland or Mexico, the US may not have the required majority of nine to pass a resolution that escapes a veto from one of the five permanent members such as France, Russia or China.
As Chief UN Weapons Inspector Dr Hans Blix yesterday answered questions at the Security Council on tough new rules for inspections, US President George Bush, stepped up pressure for the adoption of the US resolution by the end of this week, or resign itself to insignificance.
"Saddam Hussein has made the United Nations look foolish. If they refuse to act - in the name of peace, in the name of a security tomorrow, in the name of freedom - the United States will lead a coalition and disarm Saddam Hussein," Mr Bush told Republicans in Denver, Colorado, to thunderous applause.
Despite the divisions, UN diplomatic sources said they expect 11th-hour negotiations will in the end yield a compromise resolution.
The US hopes that it will still be enough for Mr Bush to claim international support for military action. This will pose a conundrum for wavering members of the Security Council although the issue will not have to be faced until the US revises the text once more.
"It won't become clear until they come back with new wording," said a diplomatic source. "Then we will see how far they are willing to go" to meet French and Russian reservations.
France has circulated an informal alternative proposal that omits the words "material breach". France claims the support of eight countries - Ireland, Mexico, Cameroon, Guinea, Mauritius, France, China and Russia - for a two-stage approach with inspectors reporting back before the Security Council decides on consequences.
The US has, however, "broadly conceded" this point, diplomatic sources said. White House spokesman Mr Ari Fleischer told reporters aboard Air Force One as President Bush travelled to New Mexico earlier yesterday: "It is coming down to the wire. This is important. The United Nations has debated this now long enough."