French economy set to grow 1.6% in 2005

The French economy should grow by 1

The French economy should grow by 1.6 per cent in 2005, national statistics office INSEE said in what was a slight upward revision to its earlier forecast.

The projection was exactly in line with one released on Wednesday by the Bank of France, but towards the bottom of the government's official forecast of growth of between 1.5 and 2.0 per cent for 2005.

It said annualised growth would be slightly above 2 per cent in the first half of 2006.

"Against a background of a calmer oil situation, the indications given by the business surveys are pointing to a steady continuation of growth," INSEE said in its quarterly report on the euro zone's second-biggest economy.

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French Finance Minister Thierry Breton, who is counting on a pick-up in growth to reduce the budget deficit, said the report backed his optimism on the economic outlook.

Underpinning the INSEE forecast, which sees the economy growing by 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, was the expectation of healthy household consumption.

"Household consumption, still the main driving force for growth, is thought to have risen by 2.0 per cent (in 2005), despite a certain degree of caution on the part of consumers," it said.

INSEE predicted quarterly growth of 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2006 and 0.6 per cent in the second quarter.

"There is one potential uncertainty overshadowing this scenario, namely the possibility that growth could be further eroded by a renewed surge in imports."

Foreign trade would make a negative contribution to growth in 2005 in accounting terms, but exports were expected to fare better in the first half of 2006 due to healthy European demand and a more favourable euro exchange rate.