European Diary: After weeks of anxiety about the prospect of France rejecting the EU constitution, a new question is exercising minds in Brussels: What happens if the French say Yes?
Saturday's opinion poll in Le Monde showing a majority in favour of the constitution for the first time in six weeks has boosted hopes among European integrationists that the French No campaign may have peaked too early. The poll has helped to lift spirits in Brussels, where the European Commission has for the past month appeared paralysed by fear of a French No.
A single poll does not constitute a trend, however, and a further survey published yesterday showed the No side again in the lead on 51 per cent. Clearly it remains too early to predict the outcome of a referendum that is still almost four weeks away.
Last month's panic in European capitals has been illuminating insofar as it has clarified the EU's strategy for dealing with a No vote in one or more member states. Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, whose country holds the EU presidency, has persuaded his fellow leaders to press ahead with ratification of the constitution even if France votes No.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern confirmed last week that Ireland would hold a referendum regardless of the outcome of the French vote. And Britain's Tony Blair, who hinted at first that he would abandon Britain's referendum if France rejected the constitution, said on Sunday that the British vote would go ahead unless the EU decided collectively to give up on the constitution.
"If what was to happen was France to say No and then the rest of Europe were to tear up the constitution and say we're forgetting about it, you wouldn't have a referendum on nothing. But if there is a constitution, there is a vote," he said.
The decision to proceed with ratification if France votes No effectively rules out a decision to halt the process in the event of a No vote in one of the EU's smaller or newer member states. The referendum in the Netherlands on June 1st is an advisory vote and the Dutch parliament has made clear that it will feel free to ignore the outcome if the margin is close or the turnout low.
The EU presidency and the commission have cited a declaration at the end of the constitution stating that if four-fifths of the member states have ratified it by October 2006 and "one or more member states have encountered difficulties in proceeding with ratification the matter will be referred to the European Council" of EU leaders.
This means that up to five countries could vote against the constitution without derailing it for the rest of the EU.
Luxembourg, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Poland, Portugal, Britain and Ireland have promised referendums on the constitution, which is expected to be ratified easily through parliamentary votes in most other countries. If France approves the constitution, Luxembourg and Portugal are almost certain to vote Yes and Denmark, Ireland and Poland are considered likely to do so, leaving the British and the Czechs as those most likely to say No.
If the French referendum campaign has provoked EU leaders into spelling out their plan for dealing with those who reject the constitution, it has also changed the political context in which subsequent referendums will be held.
The conventional wisdom in Brussels holds that a No vote in France would undermine fatally President Jacques Chirac's authority as a European leader. It follows that a Yes vote would enhance Mr Chirac's standing, confirming him as the paramount figure within the European Council and perhaps encouraging him to seek a third term in office in 2007.
Mr Blair, by contrast, has already stated that his next term as prime minister, should he win Thursday's general election, will be his last, leaving him as a lame duck among European leaders. Mr Blair's admission that Britain is unlikely to join the euro during a third Labour term has extinguished any remaining prospect of Britain taking a leadership role in the EU during the second half of this decade.
Some of Mr Blair's friends have recently been fantasising about a political realignment in Europe, with the more business-friendly Nicolas Sarkozy replacing Mr Chirac in France and the Christian Democrat leader, Angela Merkel, ousting Germany's chancellor, Gerhard Schröder.
A Yes vote in France would almost certainly put paid to Mr Sarkozy's hopes of becoming the candidate of the centre-right in the 2007 presidential election.
Mr Schröder's coalition of Social Democrats and Greens faces a likely election defeat later this month in Germany's most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia. Mr Schröder is a formidable and ruthless politician and it is unwise to write off his chances of retaining power at next year's federal elections.
On this analysis, the best French hope of fighting off the spectre of Anglo-Saxon domination of the EU rests with a vote in favour of the constitution on May 29th.
