US: After just two days of the Republican convention in New York, the political landscape in the US has appeared to shift so markedly in favour of President Bush that a frustrated Senator John Kerry, holed up in Nantucket, has begun a shake-up in his campaign staff, writes Conor O'Clery, North America Editor in New York
Mr Bush, on the other hand, has been buoyed up by the success of the Republican convention in promoting the war on Iraq as an essential part of the war on terror, while raising questions about Mr Kerry's character.
This strategy was evident in a compelling first-night speech by Senator John McCain in defence of an "honourable" war, and in the Kerry-bashing and anti-Europe showmanship of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani that had 5,000 delegates roaring their approval.
Mr Bush's campaign has not been without missteps, particularly when on Monday he told NBC that "I don't think you can win" the war on terror, after months of asserting the opposite.
Democrats accused Mr Bush of flip-flopping - the Republicans' favourite charge against Mr Kerry - and the President reversed himself yesterday, in a speech in Iowa and on the Rush Limbaugh radio talk show, saying several times that "we will win" the war on terror.
"This President has gone from mission accomplished to mission miscalculated to mission impossible on the war on terror," said Kerry spokesman Phil Singer.
But the momentum in the argument over Iraq is for the moment all in Mr Bush's favour. Much of the Democratic despondency arises from the way their case on Iraq - that the administration lied and failed to put in place a post-war strategy - has been trumped by the Republican equation that Iraq equals the war on terror equals national security.
The Democratic candidate's pledge that he will restore America's frayed alliances has also been turned against him by the Republican argument that he is the candidate seeking to appease Europe.
By whipping up patriotic fervour at the convention and recalling the attacks of 9/11, Republican speakers have reignited smouldering resentments in middle America over the decision of France especially not to back the invasion of Iraq.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll yesterday showed that Mr Bush has regained the initiative on some issues after a month when Mr Kerry was pummelled by attack ads questioning his Vietnam conduct. The race is a dead heat at 48 per cent each but on the three main issues of the election - terrorism, Iraq and the economy - the President has moved ahead.
Some analysts pointed out that Bush actually lost some ground over the past 30 days, as during the survey ending July 25th he held a four-point lead, 50-46, while other polls have shown the Bush-Cheney ticket with a two- to three-point lead.
While not yet panicking, prominent Democratic senators and top fund-raisers have told Mr Kerry that high-level changes are imperative, according to columnist Al Hunt, who broke the story of the shake-up on the Wall Street Journal website.
Late yesterday the Kerry campaign announced some staff additions. Mr Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Mr Bill Clinton, was named a senior adviser, and another Clinton aide, Mr Joel Johnson, was appointed director of rapid response.
Mr Kerry privately is said to be "bouncing off the walls" in frustration, the report said. The situation is reminiscent to June 1992, when Mr Clinton's campaign was collapsing and Hillary Clinton rescued it by putting Mr James Carville in charge.
Democrats are worried that Mr Bush will get a further boost in the polls from the convention, where the defence of the US-led invasion of Iraq by Senator McCain and Mr Giuliani has provided a retrospective endorsement for the neo-conservative agenda of pre-emptive strike.
They portrayed Mr Bush as someone who made tough choices, however unpopular they may be.
Mr Giuliani, who enjoys hero-status among Republicans for his post-9/11 leadership in New York, told delegates that terrorists had learned they could intimidate the world community, "and too often the response, particularly in Europe, was accommodation, appeasement and compromise". Under the Bush doctrine the war would not end "until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated", he said.
In contrast with the Democratic convention where speakers largely avoided criticising Mr Bush by name, Mr Giuliani ridiculed the Republicans' opponent as a politician who often changed his position on important issues.
"He even, at one point, declared himself an anti-war candidate," he cried. "Now, he says he's pro-war. At this rate, with 64 days left, he still has time to change his position at least three or four more times."
On the Rush Limbaugh show, the most popular right-wing broadcast in the US, Mr Bush explained that when he said the US war on terrorism could not be won, what he meant was "that this is not a conventional war, it is a different kind of war: we're fighting people who have got a dark ideology who use terrorists, terrorism, as a tool. They're trying to shake our conscience. They're trying to shake our will, and so in the short run the strategy has got to be to find them where they lurk.
"I tell people all the time, 'We will find them on the offence. We will bring them to justice on foreign lands so we don't have to face them here at home.' And that's because you cannot negotiate with these people ... Your listeners have got to know that I know we'll win it, but we're going to have to be resolved and firm, and we can't doubt what we stand for, and the long-term solution is to spread freedom."