Japan:Can an elderly 'white knight' save Japan's Liberal Democratic Party from the political abyss, asks David McNeillin Tokyo.
Thousands of people braved scorching sunshine in central Tokyo this weekend to hear speeches by the two men campaigning to become Japan's next prime minister in the oddest election in the country's recent history.
One of the candidates has already conceded defeat and the other says he is too old to be leader. But both say they are running because their party, which has governed Japan for half a century of almost unbroken rule, is poised at the edge of abyss.
Former foreign minister Taro Aso has admitted that he has no chance of beating his rival, Yasuo Fukuda, and replacing the hospitalised Shinzo Abe.
"I have decided to run if only for the sake of holding an open election," Aso told Japanese television.
For some conservatives, that admission was a huge disappointment. As Japan absorbed the shock of Abe's abrupt resignation last week, Aso was briefly the frontrunner to lead the ruling Liberal Democrats (LDP) out of perhaps its worst crisis in 50 years.
But the swashbuckling 66-year-old, as famous for his controversial bon mots as for his manga obsession and skeet-shooting skills, has been politically hobbled by his association with the deeply unpopular outgoing prime minister. That leaves the LDP's elderly white knight, Fukuda: a wine-loving, avuncular, ex-cabinet spokesman with a birth certificate that he admits should disqualify him from the contest.
"I'm too old," Fukuda (71) told Japanese TV at the weekend. "But the party and the country is facing an emergency situation so I will do what I must do."
About 55 per cent of LDP lawmakers say they will vote Fukuda in as party president next Sunday, adding to his overwhelming support among party factions and making him almost certain to become the next prime minister. But he may live to regret taking on the job.
Fukuda must rescue his party from support rates hovering around 30 per cent, deal with a huge crisis in public pensions and fulfil his promise to deal with a growing wealth gap. From day one he will be hounded by the opposition Democrats (DPJ), who are demanding a general election that may throw his party out of power.
Many wonder if Fukuda has the energy to deal with this crisis, but he certainly has the background. Like so many in the nepotistic world of Japanese government, he is a second-generation politician, the eldest son of former prime minister Takeo Fukuda (1976-1978). His father earned a reputation as a hawkish leader, but Fukuda has emerged as an unlikely dove. While serving under former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, he opposed his boss's annual pilgrimages to the Yasukuni war memorial, and he says he will not go if elected to the top job. "I see no reason to antagonise our friends," he said recently. "China and Korea are our friends."
Many political commentators also see a softening of Japan's approach to North Korea under Fukuda. "Abe built his reputation by being tough with Pyongyang, but we see a more conciliatory attitude coming," says Shozo Nakayama, political editor of the Yomiuri newspaper.
One thing that won't change, however, is the LDP's support for the US-Japan military alliance.
"Our relationship with the US is the cornerstone of Japan's foreign policy," Fukuda said at the weekend. Thus looms a potentially epic battle over Japan's controversial refuelling mission for US warships in the Indian Ocean.
The DPJ has promised to fight this mission and, with popular opinion turning against the US "war on terror", party elders believe they have discovered the LDP's Achilles' heel.