PRESIDENT Clinton still leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Senator Bob Dole, in opinion polls but political insiders predict a tough, close race for the White House in November's election.
One recent Washington Post/ABC survey had the president leading Senator Dote by 52 per cent to 43 per cent, compared to 56 per cent to 39 per cent in early March.
White House sources have been quoted as predicting the race could be dead level or that Senator Dote may even have taken the lead by mid summer as the country focuses on the Republican candidate in a new way.
An analysis last week by the Louis Harris polling firm compared Mr Clinton's approval ratings to those of previous presidents at the same point in past election years. Mr Clinton scored higher than all previous presidents who failed to win reelect ion but lower than all the incumbents who were re elected.
"That makes Clinton a marginal candidate," a spokesman said. But he noted that if he lost, Mr Clinton would be the first incumbent whose renomination was uncontested by his own party to be defeated since Grover Cleveland in 1888.
There are many ways of analysing the coming election. One approach is geographical, focusing on the states where Clinton is strong California, New York and New England and those where the Republican base is solid, namely the South and the Rocky Mountain states. This analysis tends to suggest the election will be decided in a few large Midwestern industrial states, all of which are run by popular Republican governors.
Other analysts try to gauge the effect of the Texas billionaire, Mr Ross Perot, entering the race as an independent candidate. Mr Perot won 19 per cent of the vote in 1992, drawing most support from former President George Bush. Two recent polls indicated Mr Perot's supporters could draw more votes from Mr Clinton this time around.
Another way of looking at the election is to examine the personal strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates and try to weigh the relative importance of President Clinton's communication and debating skills versus Senator Dole's personal attributes as a second World War hero.