German inflation data point to eurozone revision

Germany's annual inflation rate for October, calculated according to European Union methodology, was revised down today, suggesting…

Germany's annual inflation rate for October, calculated according to European Union methodology, was revised down today, suggesting broader euro zone inflation did not quicken as much as previously estimated.

A flash estimate putting October eurozone inflation at 2.5 per cent -- after 2.1 per cent in September -- will probably be revised down to 2.4 per cent , economists said.

Final Federal Statistics Office data showed German EU-harmonised inflation at 2.2 per cent rather than the originally reported 2.3 per cent , and up from 1.9 per cent in September.

Consumer prices rose 0.2 per cent month-on-month in October, a smaller gain than the 0.3 per cent increase previously reported, the Office said.

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"This will probably see the euro zone's annual rate of inflation at 2.4 per cent , which is clearly above the European Central Bank's target rate of two per cent ," said Mr Bernd Weidensteiner, an economist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt.

"However, there's no cause for the ECB to act on the basis of this," he added.

"Economic growth is still too weak to warrant raising interest rates."

Eurostat, the European Union statistics office, is due to publish data on October consumer prices for the 12-nation euro zone on November 17th.

Mr Weidensteiner said the gain in German inflation in October was mainly due to oil and fuel prices, as well as an increase in natural gas costs. "However, these effects will recede and the rate of inflation will fall below two per cent again," he added.

"There's no warning sign here yet." According to Germany's national methodology, consumer prices advanced 0.2 per cent in the month and 2.0 per cent year-on-year, smaller gains than the 0.3 per cent and 2.1 per cent increases reported in last month's preliminary data.

Prices for mineral oil products helped boost inflation last month, with heating oil costs jumping 40.5 per cent from the previous year and fuel prices up 11.5 per cent.

Excluding volatile oil costs, consumer prices fell in the month by 0.1 per cent and rose by 1.4 per cent from October 2003. Foodstuffs prices continued their recent decline in October, the Office said, falling 0.1 per cent from the previous month and by 1.3 per cent from the same month a year earlier. Vegetable costs dropped 10.8 per cent on the year, while prices for household appliances dipped 1.7 per cent.

In September, consumer prices fell by 0.3 per cent month-on-month and rose by 1.8 per cent year-on-year according to the national methodology. According to EU standards, prices fell 0.4 per cent in the month and rose 1.9 per cent in the year.