German inflation likely to exceed forecast

Price pressures in Germany were likely higher than expected in October as energy costs and the price of clothing and shoes looked…

Price pressures in Germany were likely higher than expected in October as energy costs and the price of clothing and shoes looked to have pushed up prices from September, regional state consumer price data showed today.

Nevertheless, the data also showed that annual inflation probably eased somewhat as expected after German prices rose at their fastest year-on-year rate in over four years in September.

Data from the states of Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia, which combined account for well over a third of Germany's total population, showed prices rose by 0.1 per cent from September, while they were unchanged in a third state, Hesse.

However, the annual rate of inflation in the states eased by between 0.1-0.3 percentage points compared with September.

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The states' data offer the first glimpse of wider price developments across the 12-nation euro zone, where annual inflation hit 2.6 per cent in September, well above the European Central Bank's threshold of close to but below 2 per cent.

In September, prices calculated according to the national yardstick (CPI) rose by 2.5 per cent on the year in Germany, which accounts for around one third of the euro zone price index.

Month-on-month, prices increased by 0.4 per cent. Measured according to European Union standards (HICP), prices in Germany rose by 2.6 per cent on the year in September. The mid-range forecast of economists polled by Reuters had been for both CPI and HICP to fall by 0.1 per cent and rise by 2.3 on the year.

The states' data showed that although fuel prices declined from September, gas and heating oil were more expensive.