The dramatic fall in the value of the euro and the creeping rise in inflation have created a small movement for leaving EMU. It won't happen. But it could be done, with difficulty. One financial mandarin told Quidnunc this week, in the light of a number of suggestions that we should get out before we are ruined entirely, that there is absolutely no possibility of such action.
"Not at all, at all," said a Eurocrat in horror when the suggestion of leaving was posed. "Yes, we could get out if we wanted. Although there is no legal mechanism for withdrawing, Europe couldn't force us to stay against our will, but we would be causing huge turmoil in Europe and severe embarrassment for the Government." While in leaving we would be in breach of the Treaty of Maastricht, it wouldn't cause a new European war, merely enormous legal problems and a return to isolationism.
Anyway, say the mandarins of Finance, aren't we doing great? Yes, the lefties of France and Germany dictate our interest rates, but doesn't everyone want low mortgages? High import prices and low export prices boost the economy and we control our own fiscal policy. In 12 months' time, the position of the euro against the dollar will be changed. It's silly, they say, to even speculate about getting out. So there.
One of those most vociferous in opposing us joining was Anthony Coughlan of the National Platform and he is now campaigning that we get out before the euro replaces our own currency in 18 months' time. But leaving EMU would require a referendum to amend our acceptance of the Treaty of Maastricht and even if he did succeed in persuading the Government, against all their still-strong euro beliefs, that Ireland should leave the EMU, the Government, under the McKenna judgment which Coughlan vigorously promoted, would be forced to campaign on both sides of the argument. So not only would we fall out with mainland Europe, but we would create the mother of all economic rows here.