CHINA: This was a year which saw Earth's most populous nation begin to wield new influence as an emergent superpower, writes CLIFFORD COONANin Beijing
THUNDEROUS RHETORIC on climate change from the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. Grim memories of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
Bloody scenes on the streets of Urumqi. Purple mini-skirts, tanks and machine guns on Tiananmen Square. All against the backdrop of the fastest growing major economy on Earth.
For China, 2009 was a year which saw the world’s most populous nation begin to wield its new political and economic influence as an emergent global superpower, when attention was less on China’s rise than it was on what China would do now that it had arrived. The newly confident tone going into the Copenhagen summit on climate change suggests 2010 will see China continue to flex its fresh political muscle.
A survey by the US research group Global Language Monitor showed China’s advance was the top news story of the decade, overtaking even the Iraq War and the September 11th attacks. Perhaps a little churlishly, the China Daily said the survey was the “latest attempt by the Western media to tout China for their own good”. What is undeniable is that 2009 was the year when 30 years of expansion in the Chinese economy began to translate into significant global influence.
With the western world dazed by the banking and property collapse, China still had a purse full of money.
China now has the richest banks in the world, the largest phone companies, the most webizens, the most nuclear power plants under construction, and possibly the biggest middle class. Such superlatives mounted in 2009.
The figure of four trillion renminbi (€400 billion) loomed large over the events of the year. This was the amount the Chinese government was pumping in to make sure that economic growth, which looked in danger of fizzling out at the start of the year, kept expanding. The investment in infrastructure and pressure on the banks to lend money appears to have paid off – so much so that some analysts are worried that a real estate bubble might be on the cards, or that defaulters on bad loans are waiting in the wings.
The omens in the early part of 2009 were far from auspicious. An unauthorised fireworks show to mark Chinese new year atop the TVCC building went hugely awry and the building, earmarked as a plush Mandarin Oriental hotel, burned intensely for hours before being brought under control. The blackened hulk still stands, although there is talk that reconditioning work will start soon.
It was quite a year for anniversaries – some of them, like the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, were a time for spectacular celebration. Others, such as the 20th anniversary of the crackdown on Tiananmen Square protests, were more draconian.
May 11th was the first anniversary of the devastating Sichuan earthquake, which left 80,000 dead or missing and has left many parents in the region asking questions about why their children died in shoddily built schools.
Openness in the media after the quake was replaced by a hardline view on reporting at the time the anniversary.
The 20th anniversary of the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing on June 4th saw Tiananmen Square overrun by thousands of security officials. This correspondent wasn’t even allowed on to the square, and in one of the more surreal images of the year, colleagues from TV news were surrounded by spooks bearing umbrellas, who opened the brollies at close range to stop the cameras from filming.
Activists were rounded up, and poignant tales of the mothers who lost children in 1989 showed the events of that year are still fresh in the minds of many in the capital.
Once that anniversary was over, the capital geared up for the 60th anniversary celebrations, but events in Urumqi quickly shifted the attention of the central government to the restive western region of Xinjiang, where, on July 5th, ethnic riots brought China’s worst violence in decades, killing nearly 200 people, most of them ethnic Han Chinese, turned on by their Uighur neighbours.
The violence rattled the government, and security at the 60th anniversary celebrations was stepped up. The parade in Beijing was a marvel to behold. The weather was chemically altered so no rain would fall on the Red Detachment of Women as they marched past the Forbidden City in colourful miniskirts and white jackboots, alongside tanks and nuclear weapons to celebrate 60 years of Communist rule in China.
This year also saw a new closeness in relations with Taiwan, as President Ma Ying-jeou of the self-ruled island continued to reach out to the former bitter rival.
President Barack Obama’s visit in November was closely watched for indicators on Sino-US relations going forward. There was little evidence of warmth, but insiders say key discussions took place.
In 2010, China will continue to look beyond its borders for ways to expand its influence.
The World Expo in Shanghai will again bring the world to China, and it is poised to be another spectacular showcase for China’s achievements. The message will remain one of how China’s rise is characterised by soft power. We can expect the rhetoric to emphasise China is interested in “win-win” and “harmonious” relations with the outside world.
Next year we can expect more focus on the leadership succession. The team of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang as successors to President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao took on more shape in 2009. Some analysts are already watching to see who will be the next generation of leaders after Xi and Li’s period in office ends in 2020.
China’s economy and its importance as a trading partner means its influence will be ever more keenly felt everywhere – in the gas fields of western Australia, in Africa’s cities, the fields of Latin America and the factories, banks, schools and shops of Ireland.