Another EU crisis? What's the issue this time?At a summit in Brussels last week, euro-zone members struck a fiscal-union deal, aimed at saving the euro, that would mean stricter budget and debt rules for member states and penalties for those that breach them. Basically, it's a new treaty designed to keep a closer eye on countries' spending in order to halt the euro zone's debt crisis.
Okay, I'm with you so far. Why all the panic?It may have to go to a public vote. Changes to EU treaties require an amendment to the Irish Constitution. Other European countries can change theirs with parliamentary majorities, but not the Republic. Ever since Crotty v An Taoiseach, a legal action taken in 1987, all EU treaty changes have been submitted to the people for a referendum.
So what's the problem?For a start, there is some debate about whether it's necessary to hold a referendum at all if, as some argue, the measures could be interpreted as being covered by the Constitution as it stands. An initial draft of the treaty will be available by next week, but a decision on a referendum is unlikely to be made until the pact is finalised, which will be by March. The EU's aim is to have the treaty ratified by June next year, which would leave three months to convince the electorate. On the other hand, if it doesn't go to a referendum, imposing the decision without consulting the public would not be well received, particularly among those who see the deal as a substantial transfer of power from Ireland to the European Commission, European Council and European Court of Justice.
Why would going to the polls be such a big deal?Given that Irish voters have twice rejected European referendums, it's likely to pose some political headaches, particularly as asking the public to make an informed decision on complex budgetary policy issues requires some serious homework. Those who can't get their head around the matter, some would argue, could be swayed by the campaigns of individual groups that package the issue in a shorthand that furthers their own interests.
Where do the other countries stand?At last week's summit, 23 countries agreed on the deal; three others agreed to send it before their national parliaments. While domestic political situations in Finland and Denmark could yet destabilise the deal, and Hungary and the Czech Republic say they will not approve it unless plans for tax harmonisation are dropped, British prime minister David Cameron vetoed the new treaty outright after the "safeguards" he sought for the UK's finance industry were denied. (It has since been confirmed that British officials will take part in "technical discussions" on new arrangements.) French president Nicolas Sarkozy claims a British veto could mark "the birth of a different Europe" that would converge without London – a scenario that could have repercussions for Ireland's trade interests.
Would voting no really mean leaving the euro?Minister for Finance Michael Noonan has said that any EU referendum would inevitably come down to whether Ireland wanted to continue be part of the euro, but Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin politicians have criticised this as irresponsible scaremongering. Until a first draft of the treaty emerges, the bigger picture remains unclear. At this point, it's uncertain whether the deal will require unanimous ratification, but a no vote from a euro-zone member would make efforts to ease the debt crisis increasingly difficult.