AFRICAN ECONOMIES, despite slowing this year as a result of the global economic crisis, will recover to an overall growth rate of 4 per cent in 2010, the chief economist of the African Development Bank has predicted during a visit to Dublin.
Speaking at a conference at Trinity College to mark Africa Day yesterday, Louis Kasekende said he was “optimistic” about future growth performances, noting that a decade of reform and better economic management had left Africa in a better position to weather the global economic turmoil.
"Our current view is that this [crisis] is not a disaster for Africa," Mr Kasekende told delegates at the Africa – Moving Forwardconference organised by the Institute for International Integration Studies and the Trinity International Development Initiative, both based at Trinity College.
The economist said several African economies would record a contraction this year, with oil-exporting states such as Angola and Nigeria suffering most because they are more closely integrated in the world economy. In contrast, he argued, resource-scarce countries such as Rwanda, Kenya and Tanzania will fare better.
The growth experienced by African economies in recent years – the continent averaged a growth rate of 5 per cent and above in the last half decade – presented a challenge in terms of how to transform that acceleration into “sustainable dynamic growth”, Mr Kasekende said.
He warned, however, that a prolonged crisis in the developed world may delay the recovery of African economies.
Such a scenario would present many challenges, not least a possible return to aid dependency, he said, noting that a number of African countries such as Botswana and Namibia had recently been forced to look to overseas development assistance (ODA) again. At the same time, he added, donors such as Ireland were cutting their ODA budgets. Ireland has reduced its ODA spend by €255 million in less than a year.
Mr Kasekende spoke approvingly of China’s growing engagement with Africa, saying the “China factor” had been crucial to the continent’s growth in the last eight years.
“For me it has many pluses . . . [and] it will also be critical to the recovery of Africa,” he said, but added that African states needed a proper strategy in terms of their relationship with Beijing.
The conference was also addressed by ambassador Dr Tunji Olagunju, a special adviser to the president of Nigeria, and Minister of State for Overseas Development Peter Power.