International conflict and terrorist attacks dominated last year and they look likely to continue throughout 2003. Deaglán de Bréadún, Foreign Affairs Correspondent, identifies 10 hot spots
In the words of the TV weather forecasters, the coming year will see squalls and storms, tornadoes and hurricanes. Unless the United Nations can work some diplomatic or procedural magic, the massive military build-up in the Gulf seems bound to lead to war.
This will cause shockwaves in neighbouring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, not to mention the effect on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the other side of the world, South America shows signs of growing turmoil: Venezuela is torn by civil strife and Colombia gripped by interminable violence. The African continent continues to be plagued by wars and disease: Nigeria faces turbulent elections, the Zimbabwe saga continues and there is conflict in Burundi and Ivory Coast.
Russia's war in Chechnya continues unabated and the Moscow theatre siege and last week's suicide bombing showed the conflict being brought home in a particularly deadly way. Tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir have eased somewhat but the dispute between these two nuclear-armed states remains dangerously unresolved.
There are other places which have the potential to erupt onto our front pages and TV screens at any moment - such as Taiwan, whose status remains a bone of contention. And the ever-present threat of international terrorism means that anywhere in the world could be a target.
The one piece of good news is that Northern Ireland, despite all the difficulties in the peace process and sporadic shootings between loyalist groups, still looks comparatively stable, with little likelihood that widespread conflict will recur. But all judgments must be tentative and the only certainty is that we are embarking on yet another troubled year.
Iraq
Inevitably, Number One. The UN weapons inspectors are due to give a full report to the Security Council on January 27th but the TV networks are already booking their vantage-points for what some consider an unavoidable invasion, led by the US and Britain.
War will add to the misery inflicted on the hapless Iraqi population by more than a decade of UN sanctions, designed to put pressure on Saddam Hussein to give up the weapons of mass destruction he allegedly still holds. While there is some cynicism in the Arab world about the independence of the weapons inspectors, most people in the West will take them at their word.
Things could get interesting if the report is sufficient to placate the French and the Russians but not the US. An attack is bound to result in US victory, sooner rather than later (some observers believe there could even be a coup against Saddam, although he runs a very tight ship), but then the real problems will begin. Iraq is a country of sharp ethnic and tribal tensions and preserving the unity of the state will be no easy task.
Israel
Saddam Hussein is a strong supporter of the Palestinian cause and his removal would be a source of comfort to the Israelis. However, if an Iraqi war precipitated a further rise in militant Islamic sentiment throughout the Arab world, this would not be good news for the Jewish state. Either way, suicide bombings by Palestinians and tough retaliatory or pre-emptive action by the Israelis will continue. Palestinian elections scheduled for this month are likely to be postponed but Israelis go to the polls on January 28th. Ariel Sharon is expected to retain power although critics say his hardline policies have not made Israel any safer for its citizens.
Venezuela
The current president, Hugo Chavez, a left-wing populist and former army officer who admires Fidel Castro, was temporarily ousted in a bloodless coup last April. The new regime was quickly recognised by the US but the supporters of Chavez took to the streets and restored him to power two days later. On December 2nd, his opponents called a nationwide strike which has virtually halted oil exports. Many in the opposition now demand early elections - which constitutionally can only take place if Chavez resigns. Although Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, 85 per cent of the population live in shanty towns. These are the people who support Chavez and see him as the first leader in decades to stand up for their interests.
North Korea
As if we didn't have enough to worry about with the Iraqi situation, the North Koreans have allegedly been pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme.
UN inspectors were ordered to leave by the regime and a confrontation with the Security Council is looming. A closed society, the country has been dominated for decades by the "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, with his Stalin-like personality cult. Aid agencies estimate that up to two million people have died since the mid-1990s as a result of food shortages. Kim Jong-il ("Dear Leader" whose birth is officially said to have been marked by a double rainbow and bright star in the sky) has succeeded Kim Il-Sung as de facto head of state, but the post of "Eternal President" has been assigned to his late father. South Korean President Kim Dae-jung's visit in 2000 signalled a thaw in relations but last year President Bush named North Korea as part of an "axis of evil" and there are still 37,000 US troops in South Korea.
Chechnya
The dramatic takeover of a Moscow theatre by Chechen rebels and last week's horrific suicide bombing in Grozny which killed at least 55 people have tragically highlighted the fact that the Chechen conflict has not gone away.
The Russians have used the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks in the US to bolster their argument that tough action is needed to combat what they call terrorism but what others see as the legitimate struggle of the Chechens for national independence. Russia plans to hold a Chechen constitutional referendum in March that would formalise the republic's status as a Russian republic with limited autonomy rule. But this won't halt the conflict.
Kashmir
No mutually acceptable formula has emerged to resolve the bitter stand-off between two nuclear-armed powers, India and Pakistan, over the disputed border territory of Kashmir.
The two countries have gone to war previously over Kashmir and a fresh conflict loomed following a December 2001 suicide attack on the Indian parliament in which 14 people died. New Delhi said Pakistan intelligence services helped to organise the attack, a charge vigorously denied by Islamabad.
The situation moved further towards all-out war in May, when gunmen attacked an Indian army camp in Kashmir, killing more than 30 people. About one million troops were amassed on both sides of the border, prompting international fears of a nuclear war. Despite an easing of tension in recent months, there are still fears that even a minor incident could spark a conflagration.
Colombia
There are signs of a coming showdown in this troubled Latin American country. The FARC, the 18,000-strong Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, has been at war with the Colombian state for four decades. A peace process initiated in 1998 by the then president, Andrés Pastrana, collapsed last February and a new head of state, Alvaro Uribe, was elected on a hardline security policy. About 90 per cent of the cocaine on the US market originates in Colombia and Washington has responded with substantial funding for "Plan Colombia", whereby the coca leaf crop is sprayed with destructive chemicals.
FARC, which has connections with the drug trade, has resumed its campaign of violence, with a new focus on urban targets. Right-wing paramilitaries funded by drug barons and big ranchers, and trained by British and Israeli mercenaries, have also engaged in rampant violence but are currently on ceasefire. Three Irish nationals are currently on trial, charged with training FARC members in bomb-making.
Nigeria
The violence sparked off by media coverage of the recent Miss World competition put Africa's most populous country back in the headlines. More than 200 people died, adding to the toll of at least 10,000 who have perished in political, religious and ethnic violence in the past three years. Having endured a succession of military rulers for 15 years, Nigeria came under civilian rule in 1999 with a former army officer, Olusegun Obasanjo, as president. There are presidential and parliamentary elections in April and the campaign is likely to be stormy.
Nigeria has never successfully transferred power from one elected administration to another. All civilian-run votes have been either aborted or interrupted soon afterward by military takeovers.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia shares a border with Iraq and the shockwaves of war will be felt very strongly there. As one of the world's major oil suppliers, what happens in the country is likely to affect all of us. This is a highly conservative society where a very strict interpretation of the Islamic faith applies. It is also the site of the two most important Muslim centres, Mecca and Medina.
Although the ruling Saud dynasty with its 7,000 family-members maintains close ties with the US, there are reports of growing anti-American feeling on the ground. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers on September 11th, 2001, were reported to be from Saudi Arabia. Previous forecasts of an Iranian-style Islamic upheaval have proven unfounded but this is definitely one to watch in 2003.
Anywhere
It could be the person sitting beside you on the plane: have his shoes been checked for explosives? It could be a car-bomb in your favourite holiday resort. It might be an aircraft plummeting from the sky. Or poison gas on the underground. Or a fanatic infected with smallpox and wandering the streets. Or a man with a "dirty bomb" in his suitcase and revenge in his heart. It could be Osama bin Laden himself - he still remains at large.
The rise of international terrorism, with a universal target and no home address, means the entire world is a flashpoint in 2003. From the World Trade Centre in New York to Mombasa, Kenya or Bali, Indonesia, to somewhere near you and me, there is no safe haven and no knowing where they will strike next. Life must go on of course but, sadly, nothing will ever be quite the same since "9-11".
Happy New Year, but be careful out there.