QUIDNUNC: ianna Fáil is now so confident of doing well in the May election that - for the first time in 13 years - there is a belief in the party that it could achieve an overall majority.
The core value which has eluded the party since 1989, when Charlie Haughey and Des O'Malley formed a coalition, is again being spoken of as a possibility. No matter what was said, for the past 13 years single-party government was viewed as unattainable.
Bertie Ahern and his troops, however, are long enough in the game to know that such confidence is dangerous, not simply because it can lead to complacency, but for the far more pertinent reason that if the electorate thinks FF could gain total power, it mightn't give it to them.
The view that FF needs a partner - a Mary Harney or Ruairí Quinn - to look over its shoulder and keep it on the straight and narrow, has been reinforced by tribunal revelations.
Now party strategists are trying to dampen down confidence lest the public take fright. The last thing the party needs is talk of single-party government.
Ahern avoids speculating on an overall majority when questioned and speaks instead of the PDs as his chosen partners, no matter what the Dáil numbers, and/or a few independents.
So why this super confidence? Currently all polls, published and private, show a Fianna Fáil-led government as the only prospect. The numbers do not add up for Fine Gael and Labour, even with the PDs and/or Greens. Naturally, Ahern wants an overall majority but failing that, a few independents or PDs, in that order, will do grand. Coalition with Labour means relinquishing more cabinet seats and ideological differences are inevitable.
For months, an FF/Lab partnership was viewed as the most likely scenario, come 2002. Now, the emphasis has changed to a return of the present coalition with a small move towards an FF majority of 84 seats.
Whatever about governing alone, there is so much confidence within FF that they will be back in power in some guise that ministers and deputies are already speculating on what jobs they may get in Bertie's second administration.
Many of the older and/or lower profile junior ministers - people such as Danny Wallace, Joe Jacob, Tom Moffatt and Hugh Byrne - may be dropped, opening the way for bright young backbenchers.
It is said that Michael Woods, Michael Smith and Joe Walsh are the vulnerable Cabinet ministers. There is even talk of Mary O'Rourke as Ceann Comhairle if the numbers dictate that Seamus Pattison is not needed.
So how come FF failed on abortion? Ahern may be furious, but it wasn't really a party issue and now FF is pretending it never happened - even to the extent of refusing to act on the result. And anyway, aren't the Independents on side, should they be needed in May?
Knuckle-rapping, DIRT-digging
It was, said Fine Gael's Jim Mitchell, to quote Denis Healey on Geofrey Howe "like being savaged by a dead sheep". He was referring to Charlie McCreevy's recent remarks to 500 guests in Dublin Castle that he regretted and didn't like the aggressive nature of the questioning by politicians of civil servants during the DIRT Inquiry. He thought it was "over the top". The occasion was a Revenue reception for its chairman Dermot Quigley, who is retiring after 45 years of public service.
McCreevy, who departed from his script, may not have known that Mitchell, chairman of the Dáil Public Accounts Committee (PAC) which investigated DIRT, was in the audience.
Mitchell says both he and the mandarins present were a bit taken aback and that instead of being criticised, he and his committee (which raised nearly €500 million for the Revenue) should have been praised. "In fact," he said, "I think a 1 per cent bonus would have been proper recognition for our work. Instead, he wrapped our knuckles. It was the first complaint we had from anyone. He has praised us many times but the Minister's election nerves must be started. We stand by our style and record."
Pat Rabbitte, one of the PAC inquisitors, told Quidnunc he thought McCreevy's remarks were a little gratuitous, inappropriate and wouldn't be borne out by the record.
From the specific to the General
Just as AG Michael McDowell has been appointed by the Government to examine the awarding of the contract for the Abbotstown aquatic centre, a new Centre of Corporate Governance has been established at UCD. Its prospectus - aimed at company directors - states, among other worthy sentiments, that a strong board should not only enhance business performance but should also guard against potential business failures and company scandals.
McDowell would do well to study the prospectus carefully as he prepares his report. The academic director of the centre is none other than Prof Niamh Brennan, his wife.
Double value as Quinn goes early
The Labour Party is to break from tradition at its one-day conference in Dún Laoghaire next Saturday.
Instead of the leader addressing the delegates and the nation, via RTÉ, at 8 p.m., Ruairí Quinn will speak at 5 p.m. The conference will be televised from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. instead of 8 p.m. to 9 p.m.
It will be a non-voting, troop-rallying gathering (so no embarrassing abortion motions as in Cork in September) in which Labour's six pledges - free GP care, no means test for carers, affordable housing, pre-school places, index linking of social welfare increases to wage growth and inflation and proper funding for schools - will be presented in the morning and workshops will fill the afternoon.
The early address is to allow for a more relaxed social evening, time to travel home - and because it will make two news TV bulletins.
And the rally is being held in Dún Laoghaire because Labour hopes to win two seats with Eamon Gilmore and Niamh Breathnacht.
Irish - or not
Cait Keane, the PD cathaoirleach of South Dublin County Council, sent Labour councillor Don Tipping into a tailspin at the monthly meeting in Tallaght on Monday when she opened the proceedings in Irish and suggested that they continue in the first national language to mark Seachtain na Gaeilge.
Belfast-born Tipping, once a stalwart of the Workers Party, objected on the grounds that he had come through the North's school-system Irish and would be at a severe disadvantage. Other members were probably relieved, too, when Keane relented.
Taking a gamble
The FG deputy Brendan McGahon made a late-night contribution to the Finance Bill debate in the Dáil on Thursday, March 7th. He described the plan of his colleague, Jim Mitchell, to compensate Eircom shareholders as daft and also had a go at Charlie McCreevy's intention to give a tax bonanza to millionaire sports people.
"Where will it end? As a man who has been known to have a flutter, and who usually loses, I lost significantly on AIB shares which I bought at £13 each. I lost more than I would have lost in a day or maybe a year at the Curragh. I do not expect that money back and do not support my party's claim that Eircom shareholders should be given back money they have lost. That is as daft as the proposal to give back money to super-rich sportspeople. For that reason, I say "thanks for the memory and thanks for the tips" to the Minister but I support the Fine Gael amendment." McGahon, who is not running in the coming election, has represented Co Louth since 1982 and promises to write a memoir.