Saturday's UUC meeting was a particularly good one for David Trimble, so why his intemperate remarks about the Republic, asks Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
How to figure David Trimble? Impossible. He may hold nothing but contempt for the South and by implication its people, but such a remarkable, provocative, complex character. Why does he despise us so? Let's try to supply an answer.
In terms of Ulster Unionist politics Saturday was a very good day for the First Minister, one of the best in recent years. But in terms of good neighbourliness and good manners - well, describing the Republic as a "pathetic, sectarian, mono-ethnic, mono-cultural state" isn't going to impress too many southerners or, indeed, nationalists in the North.
It's a phrase Ian Paisley would have been proud of. But that's Mr Trimble's sincerely held view. Don't doubt it for a moment.
But why make such hostile, seemingly unnecessary, comments when for once he was on a roll. At the UUC gathering his opponents were a sorry bunch. There was some talk that former MP Mr William Ross or the Young Unionists might try to make life awkward for him. But not a bit of it, he had a free run. Why? Because his opponents knew they would take a hammering.
On Saturday, some dissidents muttered that decommissioning and the proposed amnesty for republican paramilitaries on the run could yet spell the end of Mr Trimble as UUP leader. It hardly made sense. They were blind to the fact that Mr Trimble had out-manoeuvred them.
And this is how. In the first instance, the amnesty is a matter for the British government. In an election period would the sceptics be so foolish as to try to depose Mr Trimble on something he has no control over, and which he will resolutely oppose in the House of Commons? Mr Trimble has pledged to act on decommissioning if the IRA does not deliver. It is possible it could move ahead of the general election in the South to boost Sinn Féin's chances. That would rebound to Mr Trimble's advantage.
But, even if it does not neutralise a few more bunkers, would any Ulster Unionist forgive say a Jeffrey Donaldson or a David Burnside if in August or November or January they called another divisive UUC meeting to force Mr Trimble's hand against Sinn Féin - just months before Assembly elections when the party must present a unified face to withstand the DUP challenge?
Now, at last, Mr Trimble is taking control of his and his party's direction.
Future strategy is his call, not his opponents. He could decide to again withdraw his ministers from the executive if the IRA fails to seal more of its dumps.
It could even make electoral sense for him to pull such a stroke this time next year, six weeks short of Assembly polling. It might outflank the DUP and energise his supporters.
But it will be for Mr Trimble to decide, not Mr Donaldson nor Mr Burnside. Mr Trimble now has tactical mastery over IRA arms whereas before it had mastery of him. And considering the internecine battles, that is a remarkable achievement.
And there was more. On Saturday he devised the ruse of asking Northern Secretary John Reid to call a Border poll on the same day as the Assembly elections in May next year.
This would be five or six months after the census tells us if it is true the number of Catholics in Northern Ireland is now in or around the 45 per cent mark.
Odds are a May 2003 Border poll would again show a majority wish to retain the link with Britain. Mr Trimble says such a result would put the issue to bed for another generation, although that is unlikely because under the agreement seven years must elapse before another poll can be called.
But consider the beauty of a poll from Mr Trimble's tactical perspective.
It would bring out middle-ground unionism, particularly the notoriously apathetic bloc which seldom bothers to vote.
And if there were Assembly elections on the same day, the likelihood is they would vote for the UUP rather than the DUP.
And if John Reid says there are no grounds for a poll, then Mr Trimble can shrug his shoulders and say: "It is obvious there is no majority public wish to break the union; let's get on with politics." Win, win for the First Minister.
So, quite a successful weekend for Mr Trimble. The worm has turned. So why the apparently gratuitous lash at the Republic?
His spin doctors, if he had so instructed, could have explained it as a diversionary tactic to rally the atavistic, sectarian elements in the Ulster Unionist Council.
But no. At a subsequent press conference Mr Trimble was adamant his description of the South was "the reality of the nature of the State". Could we have some evidence to justify his portrayal of the Republic, a journalist asked him.
"Maybe you should go there and look at it," he told the Mayo reporter. The truth of his view was "self evident".
Perhaps in the future he will be prevailed upon to elaborate upon his views. His comments are curious considering that in his address Mr Trimble warned against alienating the "20 to 25 per cent of Catholics who prefer the United Kingdom to a united Ireland".
So if he despises the South, must he also despise Northern nationalists whose affinities and affection lie with the South?
How will that persuade them to vote for the union? But Mr Trimble had no such concerns.
"A lot of Northern nationalists themselves realise that there are significant limitations in the society to the south of us," he told us.
Here was Mr Trimble going out of his way to explain that his remarks were calculated and studied and intended to offend. Why? It just seems to be a visceral thing with the First Minister for all of the people of Northern Ireland.