THE Taoiseach is facing the most intensive negotiations on the most protracted problem in the peace process over the next three weeks. For the second year in a row, the deadline is Good Friday, and, no more than last year, he has no idea whether he can get the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein to reach agreement. The problem to be resolved this time is the relationship between the setting up of the Northern executive and the decommissioning of IRA arms.
What is certain, however, is that the Government, like the White House, does not believe the deadlock on decommissioning can be broken when all the Northern parties converge on Washington for the St Patrick's Day festivities next week. The most that Government sources hope for is that "the dialogue will be deepened".
Nonetheless, with only three weeks to go before the newly imposed deadline of April 2nd for the establishment of a government in Northern Ireland, there is optimism in Government circles that the decommissioning logjam will be overcome this time. That optimism is based solely on shrewd political instinct rather than on any magic formula to reach a compromise between Sinn Fein and the UUP.
On his departure for the United States, it is known, and accepted, by the Taoiseach that Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness believe there will be no gesture on IRA decommissioning prior to the setting up of the Northern executive. Similarly, it is known, and accepted, that Mr Trimble cannot establish the executive until there is, at least, a simultaneous gesture on IRA arms.
"The public and private positions are identical this time," a key Government source told The Irish Times. "There is very little room for manoeuvre on either side. The key to it is General John de Chastelain. And we will only get one shot at this in three weeks time."
The source also confirmed that, like the final negotiations of the Belfast Agreement last year, the question of Mr Ahern and Mr Blair knocking heads together in another marathon session in Holy Week in Belfast cannot be ruled out.
The belief that "the overall prize is far greater than the sacrifice demanded of any of us", as stated by the Taoiseach during the week, is the only ground for the Government's optimism that the current logjam can be broken by Easter. Government sources say that because all the parties, especially the UUP and Sinn Fein, have invested so much time in negotiating and signing up to the Belfast Agreement, their political strategies will founder without it.
Within this context, Government sources are disappointed with what was described as the "underwhelming reaction" to the contents of the British-Irish Agreement Bill, which was passed by the Dail and Seanad this week. They believe the decommissioning issue has robbed them of a significant achievement. In that, they are only partially correct.
The use of supplementary international agreements to establish the proposed North/South institutions meant that the psychological impact of the Dail devolving powers to Northern Ireland was not readily evident. The Bill debated in the Dail merely ratified those treaties.
There was no feeling that the historic Council of Ireland, which brought down the Sunningdale Agreement 25 years ago, had come into effect.
The Government decided to proceed by way of treaties, rather than legislation, to establish the North/South implementation bodies, the North/South ministerial council and the British/Irish council because it felt it important that the same corpus of documents would be signed in both legal jurisdictions. The only way to get identical texts was with supplementary international agreements signed by both governments.
The signing of these treaties, however, is the biggest inducement to all parties, particularly Sinn Fein, to resolve the decommissioning obstacle to enable the Northern executive, six North/South semi-state bodies, the North/South ministerial council in Armagh and the British/Irish intergovernmental conference in Belfast to be established at Easter.
It would be no exaggeration to say that the Taoiseach is now banking on this historic achievement, more than anything else, to solve the decommissioning impasse by Good Friday.