Less than a week before the presidential election, convential wisdom says it should all be decided. Here is what traditionally, almost always, happens at this moment in a close election.
A few days or even a week before election day, the candidate is called to a meeting with his campaign manager and the campaign pollster.
As the candidate listens, the number crunchers tell him, with certainty, whether or not he is going to be the next president of the United States.
In public, both candidates and their campaigns maintain a veneer of optimism. But one candidate knows that it is all over.
Last week, Mr George W. Bush became a changed man. He relaxed. His demeanor at campaign rallies and in television interviews was friendly, jovial and confident in a completely new way. He seemed sure of himself, but humbled with a new sense of responsibility.
Any shift in Vice-President Al Gore's persona was imperceptible. Mr Gore is energetic, intense, shouts and jabs the air shouting "I will fight for you!" as he has been doing for months now.
Did someone in the Grand Old Party (GOP) tell Mr Bush he is going to be the next president? Some pundits think so.
Phillip Weiss, a reporter for the New York Observer, has spent many days travelling with the Bush campaign. Watching Mr Bush end this week in Florida, Mr Weiss writes, "It's clear he knows he's going to win. Maybe he's wrong, but that's what he knows, the way an animal knows something. George Bush believes that, and now he's growing into something else before our eyes."
"All the polling we've done shows that voters tend to agree with Mr Gore on most of the issues, but they support Mr Bush on trustworthiness and likeability," said Mr Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.
"If they're not sure what they want to do, they're probably more likely to vote for the guy they like," he said.