Analysis: It would be wrong to infer that only a resolution can save social partnership, writes Chris Dooley.
It would be extraordinary if a dispute involving 550 seafarers was to cause the end of social partnership in an economy of two million workers.
Any suggestion, however, that unions are preparing to move on from the Irish Ferries crisis in the interest of saving partnership appears to be wide of the mark. For the time being at least, this most acrimonious of disputes is set to hold centre stage.
There is, of course, a coherent argument to be made in favour of unions looking beyond the controversy to the "bigger picture". After all, the issues thrown up by the ferries dispute - displacement of jobs and alleged exploitation of migrant workers - are not specific to one company, or even one sector of the economy.
So even if Irish Ferries cannot be prevented from pursuing the course it is on, there remains much the Government can do to address union concerns about a "race to the bottom" in employment standards.
It is also worth noting that unions have always been careful not to allow any one group of workers "hijack" partnership negotiations.
During the mid-term review of Sustaining Progress, for example, Irish Congress of Trade Unions general secretary David Begg was quick to dismiss the suggestion that the then controversy over the future of Aer Rianta would be a dominant issue in the talks.
Aer Rianta was subsequently high on the agenda but Mr Begg's point was clear: Ictu had a job to do for all workers and could not allow the interests of any one group to dictate the agenda.
There is surely an argument, then, for Siptu and trade unions in general to view the Irish Ferries dispute as a battle lost and to get on with fighting the war against attacks on employment standards being reported across the economy, most notably in construction. Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, indeed, has already assured them of the Government's support.
The problem with that analysis, as Siptu president Jack O'Connor stressed yesterday, is that the only way to test the Government's willingness to act on any issue is to see what it does when that issue is "live". It is clear that in Siptu's view the Government has failed that test in the case of Irish Ferries.
An alternative stance open to the unions is to regard the Irish Ferries case as an isolated one, given the particular legal difficulties facing the Government in dealing with a company operating at sea.
Failure to stop the company need not, therefore, be a bar to unions sitting down with the other social partners to ensure no employer can replicate Irish Ferries' actions.
Siptu insists, however, that the Government must at least be seen to do everything it can to thwart the company, and it does not accept Mr Ahern's assertion this week that there is "no more" that can be done.
Mr O'Connor summed up the position yesterday when he acknowledged that one dispute could not decide the future of partnership. But he added it was difficult to see how the process could survive "if the Government cannot bring itself to address these issues [ job displacement, exploitation and the protection of employment standards] in this high-profile situation".
Another problem for union leaders, even if they were disposed to isolating the Irish Ferries dispute with a view to securing a new national agreement, is that the company's tactics keep putting the dispute into the spotlight.
It is not just its outsourcing plan, but the extraordinary manner this week in which it went about implementing it, that make partnership talks impossible at present.
Nevertheless, it would be wrong to conclude that only an unlikely resolution of the Irish Ferries dispute can save social partnership. Ultimately, the commitment of all the main parties to a process that has served the economy well since 1987 is not to be discounted.
Eventually, the two issues - Irish Ferries and partnership - may become disentangled, although most likely not in the way the company's management has envisaged.
One possible scenario is that unions will go into talks on a successor to Sustaining Progress, while simultaneously fighting a no-holds-barred battle with the company. The thinking here is that, as Irish Ferries has in effect put itself outside the partnership process, unions can fight the company without having to observe the rules of engagement dictated by national agreements.
Militant action supported by the wider trade union movement, such as blockades of ports, would become a real possibility.
The coming days are likely to see intensified engagement in the dispute by Ictu leaders, who will step up contacts with the employers' body, Ibec, and the Government.
Representatives of the three make up the National Implementation Body, which intervened earlier this month to help resolve another seemingly intractable dispute which also posed a threat to partnership, the one at An Post.