Fianna Fáil is riding high with a 45 per cent first preference rating intoday's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. But, as Ian McShanenotes, the party may also benefit through transfers from other party candidates, including Fine Gael
Today is the first Irish Times/MRBI poll since February, with fieldwork conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week. More immediate events which may have influenced voters' opinions since the Dáil was dissolved last Thursday include the launch of the Fianna Fáil manifesto that same day, Fine Gael's on Friday, the Green Party's on Sunday, and the PD's the previous Sunday, April 21st.
It is, however, unlikely that many of those who responded to the survey will have had time to pick through the finer details of any of these parties' proposals by the time they were interviewed, while the final part of Labour's manifesto was not launched until the day survey interviewing was ending. Main political developments since February's poll include the narrow defeat of the Government's abortion referendum, heavy media focus on the issue of crime, and a number of economic reports which appeared to signal a general upturn in the economy.
In terms of overall satisfaction levels, the Government has weathered the February-April period well, with its second successive referendum defeat apparently having no negative impact on its broad standing with the electorate.
Bertie Ahern's 69 per cent satisfaction rating is his highest in two years, and as high as it has been at any stage since the last election bar the 73 per cent he achieved in April 1998 and the 74 per cent he achieved in December 1998. Mary Harney's satisfaction score is down four points to 52 per cent, while the ratings for all other party leaders are either equal to, or within one percentage point of those measured eight weeks ago.
In terms of party support, Fianna Fáil begin the campaign at a core rating of 39 per cent, increasing to 45 per cent upon exclusion of the undecideds. Closer analysis of the findings reveal that the Fianna Fáil party support base is a near mirror-image of the total population of Ireland in terms of age, gender, socio-economic status and even region, suggesting that the party must address the key concerns of all sections of the population if it is to maximise its full potential on voting day. Presumably this will entail their moving the emphasis away from the relatively safe ground of the economy to presenting adequate solutions to areas of concern such as healthcare and crime.
The use of the simulated ballot paper technique (see accompanying explanatory report) allows for the first time an analysis of second preference voting intentions on a nationwide basis.
Of the two main parties, Fianna Fáil is currently benefiting from a greater intra-party transfer ratio than is Fine Gael. Thus, of those intending to allocate their first preference to a Fianna Fáil candidate, over half (54 per cent) intend to give their second preference to another Fianna Fáil candidate.
The corresponding figure for Fine Gael is just 40 per cent. While it is acknowledged that Fine Gael is running fewer candidates than Fianna Fáil to begin with, it is also a fact that Fine Gael appear likely to be fighting for the last seat in a range of constituencies. They will need to tighten up on their transfer ratio if they are to succeed in converting a significant proportion of these marginals.
Fianna Fáil will also be encouraged by the fact that today's poll shows over a third of Labour first preferences transferring to themselves, more than are being picked up by Fine Gael. Between a quarter and a third of all other party first preferences look set to transfer to Fianna Fáil, as is a majority of PD transfers.
Consolidated candidate support for Fine Gael now stands at 23 per cent. As with Fianna Fáil, the party's support base is quite well spread across the different age groups, and between the genders. While drawing significant levels of its support from across all social class groupings, the party performs particularly well among the farming community. The relative underperformance of Fine Gael in the Dublin area is by now well documented with, conversely, Munster emerging as something of a stronghold for the party.
Transfers from all of the other parties to Fine Gael are running at between 20-25 per cent nationwide. As with their first preference vote however, Fine Gael's ability to attract transfers in the Dublin region emerges as a key weakness, with Labour garnering as many as half of all Fine Gael transfers in the capital.
Labour should be satisfied with its solid rating of 12 per cent, measured as it was before the final part of its manifesto will have registered with the public. With regard to the issues the party will major on over the next two weeks, it is interesting to note that its support base is quite evenly split between upper and lower socio-democratic groupings. The party is also picking up a reasonable proportion of second preferences from Fine Gael, as well as from the smaller parties and independents.
Based on these results, the Green Party could still feasibly improve upon its current holding of two seats, allowing for the fact that it is concentrating its efforts in specific constituencies around the country. As with the other smaller players, however, its greatest challenge lies in attracting enough transfers from outside the party to carry its candidates across the line in the marginals it is targeting.
Given the survey's margin of error, the chances of the PDs returning with the same number of TDs as it did in 1997 cannot be discounted. The party will already be aware that its profile is very much older than that of any of the other parties, with support very much concentrated in the broad Dublin/Leinster region.
Finally, Sinn Féin is still on course to achieve its stated target of three seats, but will have to do so on the basis of very high first preference votes in each case. In terms of any non-Sinn Féin transfers the party will receive however, they appear more likely to come from the Labour Party and independent candidates than from any other source.
Ian McShane is managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland Limited