Governments hoping DUP paper will trigger talks on devolution

The DUP will tomorrow publish its proposals for North-South and British-Irish co-operation that the British and Irish governments…

The DUP will tomorrow publish its proposals for North-South and British-Irish co-operation that the British and Irish governments hope will act as a trigger for comprehensive negotiations aimed at restoring devolution to Northern Ireland.

The DUP will release its paper in Belfast tomorrow detailing its views on how the cross-Border Strand One and the east-west Strand Two elements of the Belfast Agreement should operate.

The document follows on the DUP's Devolution Now paper published at the start of the year dealing with Strand One issues internal to Northern Ireland, such as the running of the Northern Assembly and Executive. This included some innovative proposals including a Stormont administration that would involve Sinn Féin and the other parties even if the IRA did not end activity and decommission. The political atmosphere is far from cordial in Northern Ireland at the moment, particularly because of the fallout from the Cory report into allegations of British security forces collusion in four controversial killings and the refusal of the British government to initiate an immediate independent inquiry into the 1989 murder of Belfast solicitor Mr Pat Finucane.

That situation is likely to be exacerbated with the scheduled publication in two weeks' time of the Independent Monitoring Commission's (IMC) report detailing the extent of republican and loyalist paramilitary activity, and also focusing on the alleged IRA attack on dissident republican Bobby Tohill.

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The governments hope that if the controversy surrounding these issues can be resolved or set aside, a short period of intensive negotiations can take place ahead of the run-up to the June European elections. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, are primed to again participate directly with the process shortly after the IMC report is published, most likely re-engaging in the week beginning Monday, April 26th.

This would allow for about two weeks of negotiations before such talks would have to be suspended to make way for the European Parliament election campaign in Northern Ireland.

Most of the parties believe that a breakthrough would be impossible in that short period, but that the groundwork could be prepared for more serious negotiations after the elections, probably in the autumn.

Dublin and London view publication of the DUP papers as "significant" because for the first time it will give the parties - particularly the leading nationalist and unionist parties, Sinn Féin and the DUP - something "tangible" on which to base negotiations.

Outside of Sinn Féin there is general consensus that two main issues remaining to be resolved to allow for a return to devolution are ending paramilitarism and determining that unionists would share power with Sinn Féin.

Tomorrow's DUP paper is unlikely to be fully endorsed by Sinn Féin and the SDLP but, according to British and Irish sources, it should provide a platform for party talks hosted by the two governments in about three weeks. DUP sources have already acknowledged that its Strand One, Two and Three proposals are open to negotiation.

The DUP is still refusing to deal directly with Sinn Féin in these talks, which senior republicans such as Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness have insisted is an obstacle to progress.