Much will hinge on how the Greens perform in government and whether the Opposition can raise themselves for another long haul, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor Analysis.
The pure pragmatism of Fianna Fáil, which has enabled the party to adapt, chameleon-like, to whatever the electorate throws up, was vividly illustrated in the Dáil yesterday when Bertie Ahern's nomination as Taoiseach was proposed by his deputy leader, Brian Cowen, seconded by the acting leader of the Green Party, Trevor Sargent, supported by the acting PD leader, Mary Harney, and the Kerry Independent Jackie Healy-Rae.
The return of Ahern for a third successive term as Taoiseach was due primarily to the hugely impressive election performance of Fianna Fáil, but it would have been impossible without the ruthless drive for power which enabled the party to put together a four-stranded coalition.
Ahern's determination to ensure that his third government has a secure Dáil majority was clearly one of the motivating factors behind the drive to include both the Greens and the PDs, as well as four of the five Independents. It seems, though, that he was also motivated by a desire to subtly change the image of Fianna Fáil by colouring it with a new shade of green.
Some of the critics of the Green Party's decision to go into coalition have focused on the fact that the programme for government contains large chunks of the Fianna Fáil manifesto, even on issues such as climate change and the environment.
However, this simply indicates how Fianna Fáil had moved before the election to position itself as being in tune with the green concerns of the modern world. Of course, the fact that this provided a basis for doing a coalition deal with the Greens if that proved necessary after the election was also a consideration.
Just as Fianna Fáil was able to use its coalition with the Progressive Democrats over the past 10 years to embrace an era of tax cutting and privatisation and use it to its advantage, the party will now hope to benefit from the environmentally friendly image presented by the Greens and to freshen up its image for a new generation of voters.
The main negotiating achievements of the Greens was to get two powerful ministries covering areas of vital concern to them. John Gormley will take over the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government, while Eamon Ryan gets Communications, Energy and Natural Resources. The real challenge now will be to use those departments to implement their party's policies.
The Opposition taunted the Greens last night that they would ultimately be swallowed up in government with Fianna Fáil. The real test of the Greens will be whether they can achieve some of their programme in government without that happening. At the end of 10 years in government with Fianna Fáil the PDs are in a sorry, depleted state and there are real doubts about their future. It should not be forgotten, however, that after the first five years of coalition with Ahern the PDs doubled their number of Dáil seats.
What did for the PDs in the recent election was the revival of Fine Gael. With the Opposition benches now dominated by Fine Gael and Labour, the Greens must certainly consider the possibility that they will be gobbled up at the next election as the PDs were this time around. Everything will depend on how the Greens perform in government and whether the main Opposition parties can pull themselves together for another long haul aimed at wresting power from Fianna Fáil.
The Greens will certainly be targeted by the Opposition. It began last night in a relatively benign manner as Fine Gael and Labour quoted what the Greens and Fianna Fáil said about each other in the recent past. Enda Kenny provoked mirth by quoting the Fianna Fáil line that "Ireland needs Green economics like a lettuce needs slugs".
Both Opposition parties will now target the Greens mercilessly and the party may also come under sustained pressure from the media for the first time. Fine Gael and Labour TDs have noted that only a tiny percentage of Green transfers went to Fianna Fáil in the election, while the bulk of them went to the alternative government parties. They will now go after the Green vote with a vengeance.
How the party fares will depend not just on how well its Ministers perform in their green responsibilities, but on how they react when the Government comes under real pressure. Issues relating to ethics in politics, which are bound to arise from the tribunals, could be a real problem, but the Green Ministers should have factored that into their decision-making already.
Issues such as the attempt to revive the EU constitution could also be thorny, but if politics in the future follows the pattern of the past the real problems will arise from issues which are not on anybody's political radar screen at the moment. How they respond to the pressure of events will determine how the Greens fare when the time next comes to face the electorate.
Yesterday was a deeply disappointing day for the Opposition. Kenny managed to disguise his disappointment at having come so near to power and yet failing to take it. At least he had the achievement of 20 extra seats to comfort him, and his party can now look forward to making further substantial gains in the future, if they go about it the right way.
The mood on the Labour benches was much gloomier. Pat Rabbitte told the Dáil of his belief that it was not healthy that a single party should have such a long-term grip on power, and he defended his decision to offer the people of Ireland an alternative government. What he can't avoid reflecting on is that it was Labour's failure to gain just a few seats that scuppered the chances of that alternative winning.
Sinn Féin is in an even more invidious position with just four seats, and the party is still coming to terms with the shock of its failure to make gains. A period of soul searching is in store.
Tony Gregory is now the only real Independent in the Dáil and he spoke passionately about the reasons he would not vote for the nomination of his constituency colleague Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach, one of them being what he called the policies that have enabled billionaire developers to drive house prices beyond the reach of ordinary people.
Although all of the parties have a lot to reflect on, the day belonged to Ahern and Fianna Fáil. Ahern's electoral record is second only to Éamon de Valera's and it will be a long time before it is surpassed.