Greens set for double loss at Euro elections

The Green Party are in danger of losing both their European Parliament seats, according to the latest Irish Times /TNSmrbi opinion…

The Green Party are in danger of losing both their European Parliament seats, according to the latest Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll.

Green Party deputy leader Ms Mary White could lose out to the Labour Party's Mr Peter Cassells in the Leinster constituency now known as East.

Ms White - replacing outgoing MEP Ms Nuala Ahern who is retiring - registers just six per cent in the poll. Mr Cassells registers 14 per cent in what would represent a significant coup for the party in the three-seater constituency.

The findings in East indicate the benefit of running candidates who have developed a public profile outside party politics.

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Mr Cassells is a former general secretary of the ICTU while another candidate in with a chance of unseating the Greens and delivering a second seat for Fine Gael is TV presenter and journalist Ms Mairead McGuinness.

The poll shows Fianna Fáil's, Mr Liam Aylward and Fine Gael's Ms Avril Doyle topping the poll with both attracting 23 per cent support.Fianna Fáil chairman Mr Seamus Kirk is well off the pace on ten per cent.

The Greens are also in trouble in Dublin where the poll shows Labour's Mr Prionsias De Rossa going back to Strasbourg in third behind Fine Gael's Mr Gay Mitchell who tops the four-seater with 19 per cent.

In one of two surprises in the poll, outgoing MEP, Ms Patricia McKenna is trailing Sinn Féin's Ms Mary-Lou McDonald who is a point ahead of the Green's candidate and set for the last seat with eleven per cent of the vote.

More surpassingly, though, Mr Royston Brady's aggressive publicity campaign is paying off with the poll showing him at 18 per cent - five points ahead of his more established Fianna Fáil running mate TD, Mr Eoin Ryan.

One independent could unseat another in the North West constituency made up of Connacht, Ulster and Clare. Ms Marian Harkin, elected as a TD in Sligo for the first time in 2002, is eleven points clear of outgoing MEP Dana Rosemary Scallon.

Ms Harkin is tied on 16 per cent with Fianna Fáil junior minister, Dr Jim McDaid. But the Donegal man is behind the candidate his party did not want to run.

Mr Seán O Neachtain defied central office in competing with another minister of state, Mr Jim Fahey in seeking the nomination. He pulled off a surprise win in the selection convention and now tops the poll with 20 per cent.

Fine Gael's Mr Jim Higgins looks in a comfortable position for the second seat on 17 per cent. Transfers from running mate Ms Madeleine Taylor-Quinn are likely to push him over the finishing line. Ms Harkin a former Fine Gael member looks in a better position to benefit from surpluses from Fine Gael and Labour, giving her a slight advantage over Dr McDaid.

Fianna Fáil is in a stronger position in Munster, however, where their vote is holding up well with the party set to retain two seats in Munster despite the constituency's loss of seat in the boundary revisions.

The popular Mr Brian Crowley tops the poll in the three-seater with 31 per cent of the vote and will have votes to spare to transfer to Limerick stalwart Mr Gerry Collins who is showing 17 per cent.

He might need the help with Fine Gael's Mr Simon Coveney safe at one point above the 25 per cent quota, his nearest challenger is disability campaigner Ms Kathy Sinnott on nine per cent.

Labour, Sinn Féin and the Greens look out of the running but Ms Sinnott is likely to be the main beneficiary of their transfers, though she will need to gain more first preferences to stand a real chance of by-passing Mr Collins.

The opinion poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 2000 voters throughout the State lat Tuesday and Wednesday. Some 500 voters were interviewed in each of the four Euro constituencies. They were presented with a sample ballot paper.