BRITAIN: High-powered think-tank hears views of former UK envoy.
A discreet gathering took place in the basement auditorium of one of Britain's high-powered think-tanks this week. It demonstrated the importance attached in government, diplomatic and academic circles to the success of the transition of power to indigenous Iraqi hands, scheduled to take place in a matter of days.
Led by the former foreign secretary, Lord (Douglas) Hurd, London's intellectual elite turned out at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) to hear the prognosis of Britain's former special envoy to Iraq, Sir Jeremy Greenstock.
Set against the backdrop of a dire security situation and the escalation of a broad, seemingly co-ordinated, campaign of violence, Sir Jeremy's analysis for the future of Iraq could fairly be called optimistic.
He was confident that what he described as the three main elements behind the intensifying wave of violence would not join forces. They offered no political alternative to the self-determination on offer and did not enjoy enough popular support to threaten the transitional authority or its plans for elections next year.
The continued presence of foreign troops was essential if Iraq's new leaders had any hope of countering the violence marring attempts to build a healthy political, social and economic environment, he said. He was referring to the oblique but consistent message from Iraqi leaders that military support is essential to their task. Iraqis should expect foreign troops to remain for at least another two years, albeit "only at the invitation and with the approval of their government".
He was complimentary in his assessment of President Ghazi al-Yawar and Prime Minister Mr Iyad Allawi. "Neither are puppets, both will struggle to create a competent government," he said. The decision by the Iraqi Governing Council to disband "was a positive move that demonstrates this is a government for Iraqis". Sir Jeremy was full of praise for "the good, sensible political programme" laid out by the American head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, Mr Paul Bremer, which aims to lead Iraq toward elections by December 2005.
Central to the success of the transition to self-determination, however, was a halt in the violence that he described as "the fundamentally nihilistic and anarchical brutality against the tolerance of the Iraqi people". This had taken hold immediately it became clear the forces of Saddam Hussein had dissolved and the Americans were ill-equipped to fill the vacuum of authority.
Enormous abandoned weapons caches facilitated a Baathist resistance which "remains lethal, dangerous but not a strategic threat", Sir Jeremy said. The chaos and fear they created cleared a path for the "non-Iraqi al-Qaeda franchise" to move in. The terrorists, he said, operated within a hostile society, and were symptomatic of a global problem temporarily manifested in Iraq.
According to Sir Jeremy's analysis, these two factions, along with a small number of disgruntled Iraqis who used violence to vent anger about the failings of the occupying coalition, did not share an ideology and would remain separate.
But as he spoke on Thursday afternoon, residents of five Iraqi cities were counting their dead and the health ministry was revising upwards the number of people killed in a series of bomb blasts, rocket attacks and fire fights that took place before 10 a.m.
One source in Baghdad feared there was no coincidence of timing. "This all takes place by the time I've had breakfast and a bath, in difference places all over the country. I don't think that can be coincidence," the source, a western journalist, said.
Much of Sir Jeremy's views were also out of step with the those of a handful of Middle Eastern academics who, not only see little real change with the handover of authority, but believe the transfer to be a symbolic gesture aimed at appeasing public opinion ahead of the US presidential election.
"The handover has nothing to do with the real situation in Iraq, it follows the domestic agenda of the United States," said Ms Rime Allaf, associate fellow of RIIA's Middle East programme.
"There is no handover of sovereignty, the United States and Britain are keeping control of security and oil. In the short-term there will not be any change in Iraq," she said.
Dr Ghanim Jawad, of the al-Khoei Foundation, and Islamic charity in London, blamed "support from neighbouring countries which has given rise to an unholy coalition of Baathists and militants working for ultimate jihad".
Speaking at a recent gathering of international journalists, he said the aim of this alliance "is to affect change in the policy of the coalition and government so that they are close to the militant ideology". He blamed the continuing presence of the militants on the coalition's failure to train domestic security forces, following the decision by Mr Bremer to disband all Baathist institutions and disbar party members from their jobs.
Speaking yesterday, Ms Allaf concurred: "What they didn't understand is that in any totalitarian regime, the only way to get ahead is to align yourself with the rulers, so anyone with a steady job was a Baathist."