MR WILLIAM HAGUE has hopes of winning the Conservative Party leadership tonight without the necessity of a third round playoff against the former Chancellor, Mr Kenneth Clarke.
A simple majority - just 83 votes - would be enough to secure victory in today's three cornered contest between Mr Hague, Mr Clarke and the rightwing Mr John Redwood. Each of the candidates needs to win 55 votes to claim a place in the third ballot, scheduled for Thursday.
The Hague camp last night refused to predict outright victory, given the continuing uncertainty about the allegiance of the 47 Conservative MPs who previously backed Mr Michael Howard and Mr Peter Lilley. Mr Redwood, who polled 27 votes last Tuesday, needs over half of those if he is to eclipse Mr Hague and emerge as the undisputed candidate of the right. But sources in his own camp confirmed the general expectation that he would fall short of this, estimating his "solid" support in "the mid 40s".
Mr Clarke, who won 49 votes in the first ballot, is expected to easily surmount the 55 vote barrier. And supporters say if he remains the front runner tonight, he would push the contest to a third round. However the Hague camp calculates that, if their man assumes pole position after today's vote - needing only a handful of converts from the Redwood camp to clinch victory in the final ballot - there will be massive pressure on Mr Clarke to bow to the inevitable and withdraw from the contest. The 1990 leadership contest provides a precedent for this, when Mr John Major emerged two short of the necessary winning total in the second ballot, but a sufficiently clear favourite to prompt Mr Michael Heseltine's withdrawal from the contest.
All three candidates were making a final pitch for votes, addressing and answering questions before the 164 strong electorate of Conservative MPs in a Commons committee room last night, at the end of an increasingly bitter second week of campaigning.
Amid increasing signs that Mr Clarke would refuse to serve in a shadow cabinet led by either of his rivals, Lord Geoffrey Howe, a former deputy prime minister, launched a scathing attack on Mr Hague and Mr Redwood over their attitude to the European Single Currency. And Lord Howe - who played a famous role in the collapse of Margaret Thatcher's leadership - said while Mr Hague (36) had undoubted leadership potential, he was as yet too young.
However, Mr Hague's campaign received a welcome boost when Mrs Gillian Shephard, the former Education Secretary, declared for him - against earlier expectations that she would follow constituency advice and support Mr Clarke.
Some of Mr Clarke's key supporters on the left of the party, meanwhile, dismissed weekend press reports that they were planning a staged defection from the party should Mr Hague or Mr Redwood win the leadership contest.