War in Gaza:KHALED MESHAL, the political leader of Hamas, receives visitors in his office in Damascus only after rigorous checks at the door. Syrian plain-clothes men loiter outside in the leafy street and Palestinian guards operate an airport-style screening machine. Coffee, mint tea and sticky baklava are on offer under a giant picture of Jerusalem's golden-domed mosque.
Meshal, once injected with poison by a Mossad hit team, doesn’t take risks. In recent days, as Hamas fighters have taken on the might of the Israeli army, he has not been giving interviews.
Now, he and colleagues are frantically busy with one of the most significant decisions ever taken by the Islamic Resistance Movement. Meetings with senior officials from Syria and Iran, as well as mediator Turkey have had to be fitted in.
Meshal is in good spirits, according to a friend who spoke to him by phone yesterday. “He says the military position in Gaza is good and morale is high. The only problem is the considerable number of civilian casualties. But he wants the world to see what the Israelis have been doing.”
Hamas has been thinking about a ceasefire from almost the moment Israel’s offensive began. Intensive diplomacy has seen it send officials from both Damascus and Gaza to talks in Cairo with Egypt’s intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman. Hamas is insisting on three conditions: an end to Israeli attacks, permanent opening of the Gaza border crossings, and the lifting of the blockade imposed by Israel after Hamas took over the strip from its Fatah rival in 2007.
“After three weeks of brutal Israeli attacks, I don’t see them giving up on these demands,” said Khaled Hroub, a UK-based Palestinian academic. “Yes, they have lost a lot of their military capability, but they have gained a great deal of political legitimacy and standing amongst the Palestinians, in the West Bank as well as Gaza.”
Hamas’s semi-underground existence means it can be hard to read. Problems of travel and communication, both of which are assumed to be monitored by Israel, mean it rarely moves quickly. Alastair Crooke, a former British intelligence officer who negotiated a Hamas-Israel ceasefire in 2003, had to wait for answers while internal consultations took place.
“It was quite a lengthy process,” Crooke recalled.
Big decisions are taken by Meshal and his seven colleagues in the Damascus-based political bureau, in tandem with Gaza. Broader discussions are held by the 50-member Shura council. Both bodies debated for months before deciding not to renew the ceasefire. “Unlike Yasser Arafat, who consulted everyone and then made his own decision, Meshal listens to what they say and acts on it,” said Azzam Tamimi, who is close to the leadership.
Israeli officials have been talking up signs of a split between the two wings. Privately, some Hamas officials admit that heavy casualties and the hardships caused by the offensive have put pressure on the leadership to end the fighting. A rift could suggest Israel’s strategy might be working, if those bearing the brunt were leaning towards compromise.
Egypt, which is anxious to strike a deal, but concerned not to give Hamas legitimacy plays up these internal differences. “Hydra-headed” was the contemptuous description from one Egyptian official.
Most independent analysts say that although there are moderate and radical voices in Hamas, they are not divided between Damascus and Gaza.
Danny Rubinstein, the veteran Israeli expert on the Palestinians, agrees. “There is a lot of disinformation coming out of Israel,” he said. “Hamas is still very much there. It’s involved in negotiations and it can present that as a victory. They know their rockets can’t defeat Israel. Their goal is political – to advance recognition and legitimacy.”
Reactions to last weekend’s speech by Ismail Haniyeh, the deposed Hamas prime minister, illustrate the point. Haniyeh is considered a moderate compared with the more hardline Mahmoud al-Zahhar and Saeed Seyyam – who was killed in an airstrike yesterday.
“The Israelis saw this as Haniyeh waving the white flag,” said Nick Pelham of the International Crisis Group. It was an appeal from the political wing to the military wing to give time to diplomacy. Haniyeh was trying to establish Hamas as a centralised body with a single decision- making structure.”
Less is known about the position of Ahmed Jabari, commander of the Izzedin al-Qassam brigades, the Hamas military wing. Estimates vary, but the consensus is that its strength is down by no more than 10 per cent to 15 per cent, though that could rise if the Israelis go into heavily populated areas of Gaza.