IT is no exaggeration to say, financial circles are waiting with bated breath for the verdict of an extremely influential German who arrives in Dublin on Friday. What he has to say will have enormous impact on how we develop as a nation over the next couple of decades.
The man is Dr Hans Tietmeyer, president of the Frankfurt-based Bundesbank, the most powerful central bank in Europe. The deutschmark will be the foundation on which European Monetary Union will be created and plans for a single currency by January 1st, 1999, are at a crucial stage. The decision on who can join will be taken in two years time.
Dr Tietmeyer, believe it or not, is said to admire our "spunky independence".
While he delivers his verdict, whether we should be nil or out, we have to decide whether we want to be in if Britain stays out. If Britain goes in, we have, by hook or by crook, to follow.
We need to know at this stage what the Bundesbank's views on us are. We have to assure Dr Tietmeyer of our eligibility and also stress how unfair it is that our recent financial performance and, ability to be in the front rank of those joining EMU is so often ignored, a fact that piques the Government greatly. This tendency to ignore us, of course, may be linked to the suspicion that the Germans don't want us if Britain doesn't join.
Despite worries about our high unemployment and over-dependency on Britain, it appears the powers-that-be believe we now look good. Such a view is not unconnected with the pre-Christmas financial crisis in France and the amazing recent news, drummed up greatly by the British, that the Germans themselves may not meet the criteria for EMU.
In any case, the great and the good who like to run our lives will be turning up to hear the Tietmeyer version of our destiny at two events on Friday - an Irish/German chamber of commerce breakfast and an address afterwards at the Institute for European Affairs in North Great Georges Street.