The opposition has dropped its tactic of confrontation, writes NAJMEH BOZORGMEHRINin Tehran
BY CARRYING out death sentences on some opposition supporters and enforcing draconian security measures before any expected rally, the Iranian authorities have prevented their critics from taking to the streets in large numbers since the Shia festival of Ashoura in December.
The opposition Green Movement became adept at using official occasions for demonstrations. But no important protests took place during this Tuesday’s festival before Iranian new year. Nor did the opposition succeed in holding large rallies on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution last month.
Instead, the Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people.
Mir-Hossein Moussavi, the opposition leader who ran against President Ahmadinejad in last year’s disputed presidential election, said this week that his followers should not protest in the streets.
Some of his radical supporters had openly called for the Islamic Republic’s end and denounced the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
But Mr Moussavi has tried to restrain them, saying the Green movement would respect the existing constitution and follow Islamic rules, while trying to expand its support beyond the urban middle classes to include teachers and workers.
The opposition’s disappearance from the streets followed a state crackdown in December, which led to the deaths of about a dozen protesters and the execution of two more. There are six more awaiting execution.
But Iranian analysts and western diplomats doubt if the regime has snuffed out the challenge of the opposition. “That the opposition cannot express itself in a rally doesn’t mean it is finished. It’s ash under a fire,” said one senior Western diplomat.
Some analysts conclude that the Green movement, lacking coherent organisation, has reached an impasse. Others believe it could be waiting for another chance.
Calls for regime change and Ayatollah Khamenei’s downfall probably played into government hands. Reformists concede that the intensifying radicalism of demonstrations helped Mr Ahmadinejad to shore up support.
Now the opposition is waiting to see how people on lower incomes will react to the government’s plan to cut subsidies that hold down prices of basic goods. That could jeopardise many jobs and raise inflation from about 30 per cent to about 50 per cent.
“The opposition is trying to make people refocus their attacks on the government, to force Ayatollah Khamenei either to remove Mr Ahmadinejad or accept political reforms,” says a former official.
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who threw his weight behind reformists during the election, is trying to mediate.
He recently hinted that Mr Ahmadinejad’s government could be sacrificed to ensure the Islamic Republic’s survival. But there is no sign that Ayatollah Khamenei is willing to consider any compromise with the opposition. – (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010)