Stormont concern at the success of hardline unionists in the 1973 Northern Ireland Assembly elections and the potential difficulties in forming a power-sharing executive are revealed in this year's release of State Papers in Belfast.
The election, held in June 1973 and the first to be conducted under PR since 1925, witnessed the fragmentation of unionism, a major split in Brian Faulkner's Ulster Unionist Party and the advent of the SDLP as the voice of the Catholic minority.
The election results were analysed for the Secretary of State, William Whitelaw, by John Oliver, a senior Stormont official, in a memo dated June 30th, 1973. Dr Oliver described the results as "in some respects surprising and even disturbing" but detected a number of positive gains.
There now existed an authentic elected forum in Northern Ireland and, while its composition might make agreement difficult to achieve, any deal reached had "a real chance of sticking". For the first time in the North's history, no single party commanded a majority. Thus, Dr Oliver wrote: "If there is to be any executive based upon the Assembly it must be some form of coalition."
On the nationalist side, he added, "The SDLP have clearly emerged as the indisputable elected voice of the Catholic community - in the process completely brushing aside such traditional parties as the Nationalists and Republican Labour. With the self-confidence likely to be engendered by this mandate, the SDLP will be in a stronger position to assert itself against less constructive elements in the Catholic community, although there is also a danger that its new strength could make it truculent and stubborn in making conditions which the other parties could not meet."
The official saw the results as a rejection of violence: "The candidates and campaigns associated with violence or the use of industrial power for political purposes have been rejected in no uncertain terms. The Provisionals' call to spoil votes had only a modest effect in West Belfast."
On the other hand, the results revealed an almost total sectarian polarisation. With only eight seats, Dr Oliver noted, the Alliance Party had fallen short of its expectations, possibly because "many of the Catholics who had supported it at the local government elections felt that their movement towards the centre was not being reciprocated on the Protestant side and therefore moved back to the SDLP."
Turning to the shredding of the unionist vote among a number of political parties, the official told Whitelaw: "It was always to be anticipated that the Protestant vote would be fragmented but the outcome has left the potential acceptors of the White Paper principles (on power-sharing and a Council of Ireland) weaker and the 'wreckers' stronger than expected. Those Unionists 'pledged' to Mr Brian Faulkner's manifesto polled 26 per cent of the first-preference vote and will have 23 Assembly seats, while the Loyalist Coalition of Messrs Craig and Paisley received 21 per cent of the votes and will have 15 seats. However, this did not represent the true strength of the factions since unionists not pledged to Mr Faulkner had gained another 12 Assembly seats.
Dr Oliver continued: "Mr Faulkner's position is undoubtedly difficult. He will have less than half of the Protestant vote behind him, as Dr Paisley and others will no doubt vociferously remind him, if and when he makes an effort to work the new system."
In the event, however, in December 1973 a power-sharing coalition between Faulkner, the SDLP and Alliance was formed but was brought down by the Ulster Workers' Council strike of May 1974, thus ending the Sunningdale experiment.