ANALYSIS: With Independent candidate Marian Harkin very likely to win a seat, FineGael's Gerry Reynolds looks vulnerable, writes Theresa Judge.
In Sligo-Leitrim, practically every candidate in the field wants to know how the others are doing - surely an indication of just how tight things are in this four-seater since the arrival of Independent Marian Harkin.
After a number of opinion polls, showing significant variations even when carried out by the same organisation, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates have reason to be nervous.
Both parties now have two seats. Fine Gael's John Perry and Gerry Reynolds are going for re-election, as is Fianna Fáil's John Ellis. With the retirement of Matt Brennan, Fianna Fáil is running two Sligo candidates, a Sligo-town based GP Jimmy Devins and fellow county councillor Eamon Scanlon, who is based in the south of the county, also Brennan's home area.
It is accepted that John Perry, who has a reputation as a hard worker, is in a strong position and will be re- elected. Marian Harkin, who built up a national profile as chairwoman of the lobby group, the Council for the West, is also expected to take a seat. In two different polls carried out by the MRBI, she did consistently well, taking more than a fifth of first preferences.
She is quick to point out that these were taken before party machines swung into action. Now she has to contend with their canvass line that she doesn't need first preferences. She is keen to stress that nothing can be taken for granted and that first preferences are crucial for her.
But she already proved herself at the last European elections, when she was only narrowly beaten by Dana to the third seat in Connacht-Ulster. She has a number of factors in her favour: her family is originally from rural Sligo, she is a secondary teacher in Sligo town, but lived and was involved in community work in north Leitrim for 11 years.
She will draw support from throughout the constituency and has a large team of supporters.
With practically everybody assuming that Harkin is in, speculation centres on which party will lose out and which of the Fianna Fáil candidates will make it. The two MRBI polls came up with different findings, one concluding that Fianna Fáil would lose a seat, the other that it would be Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil has the biggest voter base and if national opinion polls showing strong support for the party are to be believed, it is difficult to see its vote in Sligo-Leitrim falling to the extent that it would take only one seat.
In 1997, Fianna Fail got 40.4 per cent, a fall from 45.6 per cent in 1992. Fine Gael's vote increased by six percentage points, to 36.6 per cent, while Labour got 10.8 and Sinn Féin 7.1 per cent. The Fine Gael vote then was the highest in 15 years.
All of this leaves Gerry Reynolds in a vulnerable position. He regained his seat in 1997 from Declan Bree of Labour after losing it in 1992, and Michael Noonan has since promoted him to the front bench as spokesman on western development.
But Fianna Fáil can't afford to relax. A poll in the Farmers Journal found John Ellis's support holding up despite the controversy over the debts owed to farmers after the collapse of meat company Stanlow Trading, but a TG4 poll gave him a low approval rating.
He topped the poll in 1997, taking more than 90 per cent of the Fianna Fáil vote in Leitrim.
Meanwhile Fianna Fáil's Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon are battling it out in Sligo. Devins may face a tougher time in the town than Scanlon in the south of the county, where the party vote is staunch.
Controversies such as delays in funding for the long-awaited inner relief road and the privatisation of refuse collection in Sligo town could damage Fianna Fáil. Declan Bree of Labour and Seán MacManus of Sinn Féin are hoping to capitalise on such issues. Both will try to maximise their bases in Sligo town and MacManus has also been making a strong pitch at the farmer vote.
Both Bree and MacManus discount polls showing them out of the running. MacManus says it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would lose a seat. Each has to first see off the challenge from the other and then hope, with transfers, to stay in the running for the fourth seat. The problem for both is that it seems Harkin is providing the most popular alternative to the bigger parties.
Other candidates include Andy McSharry, a north Sligo farmer who has been convicted of assaulting hillwalkers who trespassed on his land, who says he is "fighting for the right to private property without intrusion"; John Lacken of the Christian Solidarity Party; and John McCrea and Martin Ford.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Ind 1.
FG loss to Ind.