It has truly been an amazing few days, and Drapier has hardly ever seen matters move so quickly. Originally, Pee Flynn seemed to be the one under the spotlight, but very quickly this turned to Bertie Ahern, mainly because of questions as to what knowledge he might have about alleged contributions to Padraig Flynn. Then, attention moved back to Padraig. Bertie being Bertie caused himself problems by making himself available to the media to answer questions, which only led to more questions, which in turn led to other statements from Bertie and so on.
The Opposition built this up to a nice climax for the first day back after Christmas. Not only that, but the PDs were playing coy about their intentions and this led to heightened tension. Some of the more malevolent in Fianna Fail were saying this is just history repeating itself (in that the PDs always seem to hold a noose near Fianna Fail's head). Others in Fianna Fail were saying `How can you blame them?' in that these allegations/revelations are coming on a drip feed. All in all, it built up nicely to a tense and full House.
Drapier mentioned last week about body language in the Chamber and it was very interesting to study it this week, and not only on the Labour benches. For instance, there seemed to be some unease on the Government benches before the big debate in that there was a gaping space on the bench where Mary Harney normally sits beside the Taoiseach, but she made a last-minute arrival to the obvious relief of the Fianna Failers who up to then had been muttering under their breaths about her absence. Indeed, when she did sit down Drapier heard much comment outside Leinster House about how she looked: "rolling her eyes", "yawning" were the more charitable. Labour, with De Rossa and Co on board, were all bright and breezy. Fine Gael looked somewhat jaded, although John Bruton was limbering up by jogging up and down the steps of the Chamber.
Bertie Ahern gave a lengthy and detailed statement, which even Pat Rabbitte acknowledged was carefully crafted. One thing Drapier did notice was that his speech contained very many specifics and indeed new information: normally these set-piece speeches tend to be bland and unimaginative. There then followed approximately an hour and a half of questioning the Taoiseach by the Opposition. This was virtually unprecedented and Drapier has no doubt that the Opposition felt beforehand that they would be able to corner Bertie.
However, after it all, even the Opposition was acknowledging that the matter should rest there and be left to the tribunal to investigate further (which was the point Bertie Ahern made when all of this started). Bertie must have smiled if he had listened to Pat Rabbitte on the Vincent Browne programme on Wednesday night where even he conceded that the Taoiseach performed "rather well". Most observers will know that this, coming from Pat Rabbitte, must mean that the Taoiseach had excelled. Drapier has to hand it to Ahern. He totally disarmed the main questioners, Bruton and Quinn. Not only did he have straight-up answers to direct questions but his explanations were so plausible that the Opposition could not come back at him. Indeed, at one stage, he nearly had us crying in our seats when, with a hurt expression, he told Bruton that he had spent time trying to find him guilty by association while he would never do such a thing to Bruton. Ahern need not have said any more; his backbenchers said it all. Bruton had been questioning Ahern as to why he did not ask Haughey where he got the money for his lavish lifestyle during all those years. Bruton kept at this to such an extent that eventually the Fianna Fail backbenchers began to bay "Lowry" at him. Enough said. Looking at the Labour Party, Drapier feels that rather than invigorating the Left the merger may hamstring their Dail performance. Ruairi Quinn gave a somewhat muted performance and ultimately acknowledged that the matter should rest with the tribunal. In his earlier questioning he was obviously baiting Liam Lawlor with quite a number of references in his direction.
Lawlor could take no more and asked the Ceann Comhairle for permission to intervene, which he did with some effect. This didn't deter Quinn, who came back only for Lawlor at the very end to refer darkly to Quinn and his former architectural business.
Quinn even scored a bit of an own goal when he made great play of the fact that the minute Bertie Ahern had finished Mary Harney "sprinted out of the chamber". It was quickly pointed out by Brian Cowen, in his usual trenchant fashion, that Harney was rushing to get to the funeral of Des O'Malley's mother. Quinn graciously withdrew the implication.
Pat Rabbitte did some questioning, but the sum total of New Labour's efforts did not put Ahern under pressure.
Mind you, New Labour seems to be having it both ways on RTE's airwaves. Vincent Browne's programme was stacked against Brian Lenihan. Even Labour had not one but two contributors, Rabbitte and Michael D. Where is the balance in this, Drapier asks. Indeed, this reminds Drapier of the Fergus Finlay article on Bertie Ahern's troubles this week in this paper. Is this the same Fergus Finlay who vowed some time back (in another life) that he would never buy The Irish Times again. He can always borrow Drapier's in order to read his own articles.
When Ahern finished, the body language of the PDs must still have had him worried. When he ended his statement neither Harney nor her colleagues clapped, whereas the Fianna Failers did. This was a clear signal of what was to come.
Indeed, after the dust settled the PDs' spokesperson didn't give fulsome support, which surprised Drapier (and presumably Fianna Fail) given that even the Opposition was giving Ahern credit for his performance. Fianna Failers on Thursday were muttering (just like old times) that the PDs were up to their usual tricks - climbing onto the high moral ground.
This attitude by Harney is certainly a high-wire act. The PDS' far from full support for Ahern is more damning than any of the attacks by the Opposition. Indeed, they gave Opposition members such a fillip that they couldn't believe their luck. The issue moved from what Fianna Fail did or did not know to trust between government partners.
The PDs are saying that they realise that more could come out down the line. Fianna Fail will say, of course, that this is a distinct possibility, which is why the hatches need to be battened down. There could be some truth in the Fianna Fail assertion that Harney is playing into the hands of the Opposition. She is gambling with high stakes and she cannot afford to cry wolf too often. She could easily say that all allegations should be thrashed out at the tribunal, where everyone can have their say. The Opposition, particularly after Wednesday's debate, could not quibble with such a stance; yet she chose to throw caution to the wind.
All in all, Mary Harney is in an impossible situation in that her party cannot look forward with relish to an election even if the PDs feel they can be up on the high moral ground when it happens. They know there are dangers lurking in the inquiries coming up. So do they cut and run at the next opportunity? Drapier's advice to Harney and the PDs is that they should think long and hard before they set out on that course. No doubt they will be looking to the next poll. Drapier wouldn't hold his breath if he was in their shoes. Look what happened to Clinton in his hour of difficulty.