Should a 2007 election result in compatible parties failing to win a majority, Mary Harney tells Mark Brennock Ireland could return to the instability of the early 1980s.
Ireland could return to the political instability of the early 1980s characterised by frequent elections if a compatible set of political parties does not win a majority in 2007, according to the Tanaiste, Mary Harney.
She issued her warning in the context of discussing the options that may face political parties after the next general election. She repeated that she could see her party in Government either with Fianna Fáil, or with Fine Gael and Labour.
In an interview with The Irish Times, Ms Harney said she would not consider coalescing with the Green Party and what she calls their "daft" economic policies. Nor would she be in Government with Sinn Féin. She would consider a minority government supported by independents.
But none of these combinations might have the numbers to form a stable coalition.
"There are a number of options after the next election. We could be back to a situation where independents have the balance of power, which was the 1997-2002 situation."
This alone could create instability. "It could well be that if we don't have a combination of parties that have compatible agendas we could be into multiple elections as we had in the early 80s, which was a time of huge instability and uncertainty.
"So I think above all else we need a stable government and that will be one of the big issues for the electorate at the next election."
Some of the rhetoric of Mary Harney and the PDs concerning the prospect of Labour entering the next government suggests this will be followed swiftly by tax increases and a flight of capital from the State, followed by mass unemployment and emigration. Yet it is clear that Ms Harney sees coalition with Labour as possible.
If Fine Gael and Labour needed PD support to allow them form a government "there would be major challenges for the Progressive Democrats and Labour in having a compatible policy agenda."
Labour, like the PDs, have pledged not to increase income tax or corporation tax, but Ms Harney says there are other differences. "We wouldn't be prepared to compromise some of our fundamental policy positions for the sake of being in office.
"Take the health area for example, the notion that you couldn't purchase from private providers for public patients [ as happens under the National Treatment Purchase Fund] would be one issue. No way would we increase capital gains tax, because we think it would have negative revenue consequences for the Exchequer.
"We wouldn't contemplate a wealth tax for similar reasons, because it would lead to a flight of capital outside the State.
"So I think some of those issues would be pretty fundamental as far as the core of a programme for government would be concerned."
Having listed her problems with Labour, she also indicates they are not insurmountable. "Politics has changed here. If you look at the extreme elements in the Dáil, it doesn't come from the Labour Party, it comes from Joe Higgins, it comes from some of the independents."
And whatever about Labour, she couldn't see her party in government with the Greens. "No. They are even more fundamental on the whole taxation system, and on industrial policy I think there are major problems with the Greens. I've a lot of respect for the Greens and there are a number of policies I would be very positive about.
"But fundamentally around economic issues and their attitude to industry and big business and how you raise taxes and so on . . . some of their economic policies in my view are just so crazy that I couldn't see any party that supports the current broad consensus around lower taxes being able to embrace the Green Party strategy."
The PDs most treasured influence in Government since 1997 has been on taxation policy and the economy, yet since last year's Cabinet reshuffle they have been without an economic ministry. Mary Harney moved from Enterprise and Employment to Health, Michael McDowell remained in Justice. Charlie McCreevy, the party's closest ally in Fianna Fáil for so long, moved from Finance to become Ireland's European Commissioner.
Since then too, Fianna Fáil has been seeking to redefine the Government's image. No longer do they wish it to be dominated by the tax cutting pro-business element. Instead, they have been emphasising social spending and showing anxiety to address trade union concerns, whether over Dublin airport or the Irish Ferries dispute.
But Ms Harney rejects the perception that the absence of a PD economic Minister has allowed Fianna Fáil dictate the policy agenda. "We were conscious of that [ possible perception] when the reshuffle was taking place.
"But things operate very much party-to-party in a coalition. So in areas where we wouldn't have a Minister there is always consultation on the major issues. Clearly we work around the programme for Government."
She raises the Budget measures designed to ensure the high earners who use loopholes and shelters to pay little or no tax. "If you take the concept of a minimum tax, the changes that were brought in in the Budget this year, that's something we had actually been looking for for quite a while. Believe it or not, it was something I could never convince Charlie McCreevy to do.
"I am very strongly in favour of low tax, but I abhor no tax. It is grossly unfair that anybody would live in any society and make no contribution. So some of those issues may look as if they are changing the emphasis or the image of Government, but they are as much driven by me as they are by anybody else."
She defines carefully her support of Michael McDowell's actions recently in denouncing Frank Connolly in the Dáil as having travelled to Colombia as part of a plot to raise tens of millions for the IRA. This action by the Minister was fine "in these circumstances". She supported his giving of information in the Dáil reply. "We are talking about someone here who is the CEO of an organisation that was going to carry out inquiries into matters of public interest. I think that was right and reasonable in those circumstances."
As for his giving of a copy of a false passport application allegedly made by Mr Connolly to one reporter she said: "Michael has his own style and the journalist asked the question over a 10-day period and there's always issues about that, whether there should have been a general release, and maybe in the future you might do things by way of a general release, but I hope there isn't a future [ such case]. I think it is exceptional."
Ministers have access to confidential information in their day-to-day jobs and this would be made public "only in very exceptional circumstances such as the ones I mentioned where obviously a prosecution wasn't going to take place."
How long would she stay as party leader? "The Taoiseach said he was going to retire at 60. I hope I'm going to retire as leader of the party before I am 60." She is 52 now, she volunteers.
We had only just moved on from the Frank Connolly episode - in relation to which the Minister's critics claimed he had not acted with the required caution - when this interviewer asked her what qualities she thought her successor should have.
"Obviously somebody that has the capacity to work hard, it requires a lot of hard work. Somebody with vision and somebody that can catch the public imagination."
What about caution? "Caution. (pause)" Judgment? "Judgment, yes, is important." Judgment sometimes involves caution?
"I think sometimes we are too cautious. I think change is important and reform and . . . somebody that sees the need for things in Ireland to change. I think every time we really embrace change and are ambitious we do well for the country. But anyway you're not going to get me . . . (laughs). I know what you're trying to get me to do. (Laughs again) I am delighted I have so many possible successors."