Heads are going to roll if Nice Treaty is rejected

Scholars tell us that head-hunting has not been practised in Europe for nearly a century - Montenegro in 1912 to be precise - …

Scholars tell us that head-hunting has not been practised in Europe for nearly a century - Montenegro in 1912 to be precise - but it may come back into fashion if the Nice Treaty is defeated on Thursday. Although the figures suggest the Yes side should still win, the alternative would spark a search for someone to blame, with summary punishment to follow.

A European summit is due to take place in Gothenburg at the end of next week. Up to now, our delegations had every right to have a spring in their step. Were we not the classic rags-to-riches EU success story and an example to all those candidate countries? In Prague recently, a Czech journalist told me that Ireland had rarely been mentioned in any context until a few years ago, but now it came up all the time.

The begging bowl may have become the flowing bowl but curiously enough this has not caused a surge in integrationist sentiment. The latest Irish Times/MRBI survey shows little appreciable difference between the more comfortable classes and the less well off when it comes to voting intentions.

Ungrateful wretches, the Europhiles might say. The farmers, too, appear to have been shaken but not stirred by the campaign. The treaty is being sold largely on the basis of giving former communist countries "the same chance we had ourselves", but this idealistic appeal has fallen on stony ground in more than a few cases.

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Leading advocates of Nice have emphasised the necessity to read the text rather than listening to "misleading" claims. The poll shows an increase of 5 per cent among those who claim a "good understanding" of the treaty but this is paralleled by a 7 per cent rise in those who intend to vote against it. Can it be that the more you think you know, the more likely you are to vote No? In that case, perhaps the Government was smart to hold the referendum so soon, ignoring the complaints even from treaty supporters about a "rush job".

The relatively low profile of many mainstream politicians in the campaign suggests that hot-gospelling for Europe is not seen as a vote-getter. TDs from major parties have put up "Joe Bloggs says Yes" posters but this may have as much to do with the next general election as with dreams of European unity.

"Find the Yes poster" is an interesting game to play as you drive around. Yes campaigners have attributed the high incidence of No placards to a variety of sources: Sinn Fein dollars from America, Eurosceptic cash from the sterling zone and fundamentalist gold from the Bible Belt. Sinn Fein undoubtedly has generous supporters in the US and one No group, the National Platform, admits to receiving "about seven or eight hundred pounds" following an appeal in a British Eurosceptic journal. But a Sinn Fein spokesman made the point that you don't need to pay people to knock on doors.

The Observer yesterday reported "senior EU officials" expressing alarm at the rise in support for the No camp. One leading Eurocrat spoke of the "limp" nature of the Government's Yes campaign. There may be wry smiles in Merrion Street and Iveagh House when they read: "EU officials are quietly mobilising to ensure that the Irish vote Yes." Recent statements from leading EU personalities have played into the hands of the No camp. Perhaps our European masters had forgotten about the referendum or, worse still, took it for granted that the answer would be Yes. That is not the way to win the hearts of Irish voters. One wonders also if it was wise for domestic supporters of the treaty to make such a public issue out of the alleged failings of the Referendum Commission. It allowed the No side to counter-charge that this was an unwarranted interference with a respected public body by people who allegedly couldn't cope with an impartial presentation of the arguments.

The intervention by the bishops should be worth a couple of percentage points to the Yes side but these days it is hard to be sure. At the end of the day it is hard to avoid the feeling that the Government is relying excessively on inertia to get the treaty passed. Having said that, it should still be all right on the night. There will be hell to pay if it isn't.

In the run-up to the Treaty of Nice referendum, the Irish Times website, ireland.com, will provide full daily news coverage, with analysis and political, social and economic commentary. The site also features a guide to the treaty, with accessible coverage of the major issues and details on the accession states.

The site can be accessed at: http://www.ireland.com/special/ nice/