Most of the signs about the scale of the Covid-19 pandemic in the State continue to be reassuring as the country prepares to finally bid farewell to almost all remaining measures next Monday.
This near-final easing will see the removal of the legal requirement to wear a mask in many situations, drastic reductions in the amount of testing, a further relaxation of rules for visiting in nursing homes and the signalling of a phased return to the workplace.
The main indicators in this pandemic remain stable, notwithstanding decisions to ease measures, taken over the last month. Cases – counted using the results of antigen and PCR tests – appear to be falling gently, while hospital and ICU numbers are relatively flat.
Hospital Report
The removal of the mask requirement – they will still be advised on public transport – may lead to an increase in cases, but this will be constrained by high vaccination rates and the fact that so many people have already been infected with the Omicron variant.
From Monday, most people will not need to take a test even if they have symptoms. This means it will be harder to gauge the level of infection circulating. A more efficient use of resources, deployed to good effect in the United Kingdom, may be to survey the population so to ascertain infection levels.
As a rule of thumb, Omicron is about twice as bad as flu, even with vaccination, so it still needs to be treated with respect. Two months after it became dominant in Ireland, there are still more than 600 people in hospital with the virus, though only about half of them are there because of it.
The indications from other countries are reassuring, too. Denmark has reopened successfully. Cases went up steeply after all restrictions were removed, but have started falling again.
A rise in hospitalisations prompted some critical commentary but as Danish officials have been at pains to explain, this was largely due to an increase in incidental cases.
In the UK, which has also just signalled an end to all restrictions, cases are also falling.
The approach of spring and the longer, warmer days it brings should help keep Omicron in check. The virus may not be seasonal but the way we live is, so more outdoor activity should inhibit its spread.
Monday will be a big day for schools, where students will be able to dispense the masks many of them have been wearing for almost two years. The damage this has caused to their development will only be properly assessed over time.
The issue of Covid-19 and children has been one of the most hotly debated aspects of the pandemic in recent months. Some of the debate has been emotional and, at times, misinformed. People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy, for instance, told the Dáil in mid-February that 204 toddlers were in hospital "due to Covid right now".
In fact, the number of (all) children with Covid-19 peaked at 150 in mid-January and declined thereafter, according to chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan. A proportion of these had no symptoms and were in for other reasons. Half of all paediatric admissions to ICU this year were admitted primarily for something other than Covid-19.
Yet, as Dr Holohan has acknowledged, international evidence points to a “relatively increased” level of hospitalisation of children during the Omicron surge. Even if the overall risk remains low, with generally short admissions and non-severe illness, close monitoring of the situation is merited.
One-third of us still think the Government is moving too quickly, and one-fifth support further restrictions. It is inevitable, therefore, that many will be discomfited by the removal of the mask mandate.
Some experts think the virus is evolving into a weaker threat as it becomes endemic. Other says less virulent Omicron amounts to a lucky bounce for society. If this turns out to be the case, there could well be further waves of disease for which we need to be ready. For the foreseeable future, though, the Covid-19 outlook is as bright as it has ever been.